plo 100, flop decision

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plo 100, flop decision

CO: $44.30
BN: $118.45
SB: $216.78
BB: $207.78
UTG: $142.75 (Hero)
HJ: $119.50
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A Q J K
Hero raises to $3.50, HJ calls $3.50, CO folds, BN folds, SB calls $3, BB calls $2.50
Flop ($14.00) 7 Q K (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $11, HJ raises to $47, SB folds, BB folds

HJ is 37/12 8.3% 3b regular (1.3k hands). I flopped quite a big hand, I bet in 4 way pot and get raise pot. With SPR over 8, he has to have some really good hand. Given that I block some wraps, flop is rainbow I put him mostly on made hands where top is probably possible but absolutelly bottom of his range here.

I put him on sets and possibly some wraps. Vs range KK, QQ, 77, KQ, AJT9 I have 44%. Stacking here I need ~43%. Seems close if he stacks with wraps too. Btw almost same equity vs sets and KQ, interesting.

Too tight fold?

5 Comments

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viktor06 11 years, 3 months ago

what are his flop stats? afreq % mostly. Agree this is really close, I'd probably sigh get it in with 2 bdfd

Actually, I'm leaning towards folding, as weak as it is. If he's 3betting 8%, he's probably 3betting a lot of combos of AJT*, JT9*, stuff against which you are doing well, so his range should be more set heavy. Then again, he shouldnt necessarily go crazy with 77**


jimmyhat1000 11 years, 3 months ago

I don't think he raises AJT9 here all that often. Its to often dominated by a hand like yours, that he doesn't expect to fold, and by flat calling he invites the 2 people behind him to come along with draws that he dominates which is good for him. I think his range is weighted more toward made hands than draws.

Imfish4u 11 years, 3 months ago

I cant really see him raise his draw here either i would put him on sets and 2 pair, most of the time top two. Even though i think it is nitty i think folding here is best. This is a very close spot and it doesnt hurt to reduce variance.

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 3 months ago

This is gross, but against a reg it's probably a fold. He won't be retarding with junk and 4-ways probably won't do this with a wrap (just flat to invite max action for when he hits). It's gonna be KK or QQ a ton when he flats UTG open from HJ and raises that board even though we hold the blockers. There will be the odd occasion where he holds something similar to you, but then you're a flip and that doesn't nearly make up for the many times you are in really bad shape.

papahook 11 years, 3 months ago

Thanks for the replies. I was really surprised with his raise holding such a good hand. Ended up folding mainly for the Imfish4u's suggestion to reduce variance when I consider it very close.

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