Please help a stupid "feel player" figure out if this equation is correct

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

Please help a stupid "feel player" figure out if this equation is correct

Hey guys,

so here is what we do know:

we are facing a turn bet of €71 into a €89 pot (there is ~€160 before we raise)

we have €383 behind and villain has us covered.

villain will fold 44,4% to our raise.

our equity vs villains continuing range is 33,8%.

we are considering jamming with our pair+combo draw to figure out the ev of a shove in a hypothetical scenario (we cant get all the money in but were assuming villain folds or ships in the last few euros).

is this a correct EV calc?

EV(raise) = (0,444*160) + (0,338)*(383+160) - (0,662*383)

from what ive gathered, that is how the equation should look according to ppl on 2+2 who are seemingly better at math than I.

it seems to just add/subtract the outcomes multiplied by how often they occur. but doesnt that add up to more than 100%? since he only continues 55,6% shouldnt the "get it in portion of the equation be multiplied by 0,556?

should it be: EV(raise) = (0,444*160) + (0,338)*0,556((383+160) - (0,662*383))

if this is too annoying to respond to, could you please redirect me to a place where some1 has reliable information about EV calcs? seems like theres a lot of ppl who are as confused/ignorant as I confidently posting EV calcs with the pretense that they are math wizzzs....


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