Playing a dry set OOP deep

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Playing a dry set OOP deep

My buddy and I were reviewing a hand that was posted on 2p2 at a 5/10 PLO 3 handed game....Here's the quick details

5/10 Live

Button(3k)

SB(3K)

BB(3K)

Button opens to 40 you call out of the sb with 88xx, BB calls


Flop (120) 8c 7c 3h

you check, bb checks, button bets 80 - say we have dry 88 here - do we raise or call? Button is a solid player whos very capable so if we pot this and button calls there's a ton of turns where we're fairly lost on and being OOP is going to be very tough with stack sizes. I think at some stack depth calling>raising I'm just not sure how to figure out where that inflection point is......thoughts on this?



5 Comments

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fzth1 11 years, 3 months ago

You do want to maximize your value when you have the nuts, and by calling you are guaranteed to see a turn, i.e. you will face that potential though turn decsion 100% of the time, and you have zero information about villians hand. On top of that, every time villian have 77xx etc you are loosing a lot of value.

For me, this is a raise.

themightyjim 11 years, 3 months ago

seems like an easy raise.  so many of villains hands have great equity against us but will often have to fold to a raise (weak FD, dry OESD).  Plus we're never hitting a turn card where we are dead so we can keep betting or x/c the worst cards and never be making a huge range mistake.

also we're going to want to be able to bluff raise this board some to prevent villains from just betting all dry over pairs twice and x'ing back the river, so we need to put some value in our raising range.

patrick 11 years, 3 months ago

BTNs cbet range should be quite strong here as he can't expect to have that much FE. I would weigh his range heavily towards FDs and OESD+. When we c/r the only room where he can make a mistake is the question of whether his draws are dominated by yours and if he therefore has reverse implieds. Other than that he will basically play perfect against you. This being said I would not c/r against reasonably competent players, especially if they're capable of making moves on further streets, f.ex. calling w/ AcT9 and moving you off your set when a flush hits. I would either c/c or lead flop.

Against bad players who are easy to navigate and play basically fit or fold I can see myself c/r at times, but definitely mixing it up with c/c and leading.


ilovetiger 11 years, 3 months ago

I felt like at this stack depth we should always raise but say we were 10k effective calling would be better...if we are super deep(10k) and our opponent is tough is raising correct?

Alien Slayer 11 years, 3 months ago

both lines have their pros and cons: 

c/r: 

+ we protect our hand, make him fold mediocre draws

+we build a pot vs a weaker made hands

+we gain initiative, are able to continue betting any turn (ex.g.: forces him fold a wrap on a flushing turn) 

-we build a huge pot OOP with somewhat low visibility on lots of turn/river outcomes

-we lose a lot if we are forced to b/f turn without beeing able to realize our EQ 

-we don't have the direct odds to c/c a big bet on a turn scarecard (and prob. neither the implieds because a c/c, lead pairing river looks really strong and we have no bluffs in our turn c/c range - and if we check he can just take the free SD with most hands)  


c/c:

+ we keep the pot small  and his range wide

+ we disguise our hand

- he can take freecards on the turn

-we lose action vs weaker made hands if a draw completes ott

-we can't really c/r blank turns bec the SPR is too high - on lots of rivers we would have a bluffcatcher and he can both vbet and bluff with the right freq. 

so all that said I prefer a c/r , bet any turn line. since it's tough to hit sets on that board we can also count with some implieds if the turn pairs and he has an overpair+FD. In addition, if he calls a PS-bet on a blank turn we can be pretty sure that he has a FD most of the time, so it only becomes iffy on straighting turns  

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