Played 100k hands 1/2 PLO not managing positive result would like input from experienced online plo players
Posted by brummell
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brummell
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Mid Stakes
Played 100k hands 1/2 PLO not managing positive result would like input from experienced online plo players
Over the past year ive played around 100k plo 1/2 6 handed game hands, the result so far has been only 4k profit with an EV expected value difference of 3k more profit - not really a great result for an entire years work....
Id like to ask a few questions to the experienced online plo players.
1: How many hands should i be playing per month? My best month i managed to have a 10k upswing and actually played 40k hands, the next month i had an 8k downswing in just about 15k hands - the rest of the months i only played about 10k hands as i didnt run too good and would stop playing for the day if i lost around 600€.
2: How big is the variance and swings i should expect ? Im trying to do a very rigid administration were ill stop playing for the day if i loose 600€ - Does this matter? or should i focus more on playing more hands even if i loose 1500-2000e in 1 day if im playing properly?
3: One day in which the tables were specially good being 2/5 instead of the usual 1/2 - i ended up loosing 5000€ against awful players having an EV expected value difference of 6000€ profit in about 1600 hands - Should i have stopped playing earlier that day even though i played correctly the game was good and i just kept having huge bad beats as the EV for the day was positive? ( when i review the session i see no gameplay mistakes worth mentioning )
4 : How big is the bankroll i should need for these games and how big are the swings i should expect to win or loose in a very loose swingy 1/2 6 handed Plo game with 3-4 tabbles running ?
Thanks for any input from experienced players
Loading 7 Comments...
1. Perhaps better to focus on hours put in than hands. Try to make a daily routine, where you free up X hours for poker. Then maximize the amount of play within those constraints (you need some study time as well) and see what you get.
2. You can use math here. Look at your standard deviation (will typically be in the 150 bb/100 region unless you play very tight or very loose). You also have your win rate. These two quantities define the expected swings. You can plug them into a variance calculator (http://www.pokerolymp.com/articles/show/keine/13048/variance-calculator#.Umkght9sM38) and estimate your chance of going broke with bankroll such-and-such, etc.
3. As long as you're a big favorite in the games, and you have a bankroll big enough to handle the swings, you keep playing. However, you might want to play tighter than optimal when you're playing higher than normal because of some big fish. You'll still get the money, only a little slower, and you'll experience smaller swings.
4. 100+ BI for PLO above the low limits.
nice link, but the question i have is... How many hands u have to play to get your EV winrate? (30-50k hands enough?)
To estimate your win rate accurately (say, within +/- 1 bb/100) takes lots of data (perhaps millions of hands for PLO). So you'll have to make do with much wider margins of error. Google "poker win rate confidence", and you'll find formulas and probably a calculator that let's you plug in your observed win rate + standard deviation + number of hands, and estimate upper/lower bounds for your win rate with a given degree of confidence:
For example, if your HEM win rate is 10 bb/100, you might find:
True WR = 10 bb/100 +/- 5 bb/100 with 95% confidence
Which isn't very precise, but at least you'd be able to say that WR > 5 bb/100 with 95% confidence. And then you could assume 5 bb/100 to be conservative, and compute bankroll requirements based on that value + your standard deviation.
So you should be up 7k based on EV, right? Then you are a 3,5BB/100 winner which i think is good.
Imo you should not think that this is the work for 1 year, cause 100k hands can be played in 1 Month too (if you do that for living), and winning 7k/Month without RB is pretty decent!!!
Aslong as you are able to play your A-Game you should not consider quitting after you lose 3 buy in. The best way, like ZenFish says, is to play as a daily routine and don´t be to much result oriented during the session...
I would suggest you read "The Mental Game of Poker". The hours you ll put into your mindset will be well invested. First fix and tune the car you are driving in, before asking how to race the track ;)
Greetings
RiT
^ THIS. Great book....well worth the time.
Only been playing about a year (around 200k hands) with similar results. A few winning players that I have talked to have said that it took them between 10 months and and year to start beating the games at a good clip.....keep working....and have a little patience would be my advice.
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