If players are non observant lets say very much, and 3 to a flop and we bet first, or its a check and pour turn to bet,  if flush is matched 50 percent of time, can we donk 100 percent of time and be good lets say not 50 percent of time but optimistic 40 3 way? compared to simply folding most often 

jus wondering :S :)

Aleks,

When nobody has bet, and you think your hand is good, a small protection bet can work well. Because even if nobody has a flush, they have outs to beat you. If they will fold their equity to a small bet, you're fine with that.

I would not lead into a multiway field with just two pair, unless I was bluffing with a blocker. But let's say everybody checked the flop, and then checked the turn to you in position. It would make sense to bet for protection then, against players who are straightforward.

maybe i didn't word out my question properly

if its 3 to a flop and flop is monotone, and we don't have a blocker at all, players wil match flush 50 percent of time, and lets say whenever we are first to bet or there was a check and our turn, if we donk 100 percent of time for umm idk lets say 1/3 pot , we should get folds at least 40 percent of time, isn't that more ev then just folding in long run? i meant in case we get called we can just shut down ( didn't refer to this case when we have two pair hand )

A problem with that plan is that you'll get called by more than flushes. Then you have to check the turn, and the jig is up. When you start betting multiway on a monotone board, you should have a flush, a blocker bluff (both of which can bet again), or position and a good reason to think nobody has a flush (after you have seen them check) and that your hand is good. 

yup i was thinking how many times will players call without flush is important for that math, and i couldn't put a number on it to do correctly so i wondered if u had some creative idea :) but obi not a spot, but then if we then decide to stab that flop here and there is it best to do lets say with hands with blockers + 2 pair hands that have some equity or blocker ones only? Sets seem to much of a waste to use there when we want to improve ?

A blocker hand with some equity is better than no equity. And with, say, a set + NF blocker, we have a good semibluff. It's fine to bet that hand, because we'll rarely get raised, and if we do, we just might make an evil reraise, or call and perhaps bluff later. And ~1/3 of the time we boat up and win anyway. 

The NF blocker gives you lots of options to win the pot.

ok thank you :)

Raise small, or call and hope SB overcalls, and then raise the river. I told you, you would not make much money. ;-)

Potting makes it easy for them to play perfectly, and you want them to makes mistakes. Now valuebet the river, small enough to tempt flushes to call.

Note that when the Ah falls, he knows you didn't raise the turn with the nut flush or the nut flush blocker. So he should realize the boatedness of your range. You would probably not play this way with some random bluff, so your range is pretty much all value. Hence, bet on the smaller side, because you want to always get called.

Just get it in and see who wins. There are few nut combos that make sense after calling your turn raise. There's AA with a non-nut flush, AA66, AATT, AAJx (presumably, he would not want to fold trips). But they aren't many, because you block them, and he didn't 3B preflop. And a loose/bad player could be on a slowplay with worse boats, thinking they are effectively the nuts.

If you'd been deep, I would not have been very keen on reraising, though.

With our hand, this flop, and a Villain flatting range of 30%!AA, he will have:

- A flush 27%
- The nut flush 11%
- The nut flush blocker 5%

With our hand, this flop, and a Villain range of top 20%, he will have:

- A flush 27%
- The nut flush 13%
- The nut flush blocker 8%