PL50(zoom): i don't understand
Posted by LarryHuev
Posted by
LarryHuev
posted in
Low Stakes
PL50(zoom): i don't understand
BN: $50 (Hero)
SB: $25.77
BB: $17.18
UTG: $106.19
HJ: $245.23
CO: $92.02
SB: $25.77
BB: $17.18
UTG: $106.19
HJ: $245.23
CO: $92.02
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
5
T
A
K
UTG raises to $1.75, HJ calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB folds
UTG raises to $1.75, HJ calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75, Hero calls $1.75, SB calls $1.50, BB folds
Flop
($9.25)
T
3
J
(5 Players)
SB checks,
UTG checks,
HJ checks,
CO checks,
Hero checks
Turn
($9.25)
T
3
J
T
(5 Players)
SB checks,
UTG checks,
HJ checks,
CO checks,
Hero bets $6.50,
SB folds,
UTG folds,
HJ raises to $28.33
Villian looks like reg 27/19/3b 8/cb 76/wwsf 47/500 hand
Loading 7 Comments...
All other players have announced they almost never have trips. He is therefore effectively HU when the action gets to him. He might use this information to semibluff you.
On the other hand, he could also have gone for the flop c/r with two pair or a set. When he boats up he isn't worried about free cards, so he goes for another c/r.
We really don't know, so it's a tough spot. But you already knew that. ;-) That said, it's not like we're easily exploitable if we fold, because both ranges should be pretty strong here.
I think that JJ would be most of his range here.
As Zen said, he doesn't have to protect against anything and with it being check to you twice, you might take a stab in an attempt to take it down if you have air and he's more likely to stack you if you have turned trips or a worse boat.
I think that this is very read dependent though. You know this player a ton more than me but if I was villain and I though you were stabbing wide here then I think it's a good spot to x/r bluff you.
I think most villains never have a boat here. I mean: is he checking with JJ or JT on this semi-wet and semi-heavy flop, hoping that one of the two players behind him will stab into four players? Or, on the turn, is he checking a vulnerable T3 boat? I think he'll very rarely have JJ or T3 here, and he could certainly have KQJT or QJT9 but those are very few combos as well. I think mostly he'll have Txxx, or a combo draw like KQ:hh. (Note that he knows you almost never have a boat either, so a hand like KQ:hh is doing reasonably well even vs the value part of your range.)
I wouldn't fold here. I'd probably just shove, to get value from combo draws.
I don't think he would c/r trips much, because:
- Low trips are not good enough to c/r for value
- Strong trips has incentive to bet for value/protection
- And if he checks strong trips, unless he has AT, he should not be too c/r happy (because you can easily have it)
So I think we're looking at a boat, nut trips, or a semibluff. And I agree that a boat seems unlikely given his flop check. But he just might see c/r as a better flop line with some 2P or sets, because he doesn't want to bet, get called, and play turn OOP on a drawy board.
But yes, he could very easily be skewed towards semibluffs here.
I tend to disagree that villain wouldn't x/r trips much:
- I think villain can use low trips as a good semibluff. Hero doesn't have JT or JJ in his range, so villain has decent equity with low trips, and villain will get us to fold various draws that still have equity. Villain can also hope to get us to fold weak trips ourselves (case in point: many people ITT advocate folding top trips).
- villain might be checking a hand like TQ because he figures it's hard to get called by worse. And then when it gets back to him he looks, sees he wants to continue with the hand, and realizes that rivers will be hard to play OOP, so he just raises. I agree it's not a good play, but a multitabling reg can easily make this bad play.
Overall, I think these options are overall way more likely than villain showing up with JJ or JT here.
Yup, various assumptions we can make . We should assume a consistent Villain mindset, though, and reasonable planning. That's what modeling is about when Villain is unknown.
If we do fine against a reasonable strategy, we can always stack off happily, but can consider exploitative folding against opponents we have reads on. If we can't continue profitably against a reasonable strategy, the default is to fold, and we'd need reads to continue profitably.
Problem is, this spot is very unique. So good assumptions are hard to come by. God only knows what a strong c/r strategy looks like in Villain's spot. When modeling I always keep all options on the table for as long as I can, because choosing before thinking things through is the antithesis to analysis.
But I am leaning towards your conclusion. Just because of the parlay we need for Villain to have us in bad shape here. He's unlikely to get there like that with strong hands, and he could certainly see this as a semibluffing opportunity. I don't expect him to expect us to fold a lot of trips, though. But he might not be thinking about our trips at all, but rather be trying to exploit what he reads as a stab-heavy range.
@ZenFish : thank you. Couldn't have said it better myself.
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