PL50 - KKQJss COvBTN - SRP - Flop and turn Line?
Posted by Bluechip
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Bluechip
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PL50 - KKQJss COvBTN - SRP - Flop and turn Line?
UTG: $53.30
CO: $67.42 (Hero)
BN: $67.07
SB: $14.95
Hey guys,
I'd be very interested in having feedback over this hand.
This is PL50 on anonymous tables, so I tend to usually assume players are straightforward, not bluffing a lot with blockers, and fairly loose pre and postflop.
Villain is unknown, and I have started by assigning him a roughly 30% PF cold calling range excluding the top 6% that he would 3bet.
Flop
I chose to lead, but retrospectively I think check/calling has a lot more merit, as :
- we don't hold any diamond
- we block top pair / top set, and some top wraps
- we are potentially flipping against the range he would flat call with (wraps, flush draws + Pairs)
- we don't have a lot of favorable turn runouts except a 5, a T, a J and the 9s (the only one not bringing another FD)
I think check/raising is very bad as the SPR is super high (13), we would fold out a lot of hands we dominate and we have very few good turn runouts.
As played, we can probably assume Villain flat calls with a range made of pairs+FD, wraps and OESD, diamonds + pair ((9+!(JJ,AA)):dd,Kdd+,T8+), and we can exclude :
- top set (JJ)
- top pair + nut FD
- AA + nut FD
Turn
Again, I tend to believe check/calling is the right play here, eventhough I decided to checkshove (which seems a valid option on PJ).
We have favorable river runouts (excluding diamonds and an A), and we would keep Villain barreling with the weakest part of his range (diamonds, OESD).
What do you think about the flop and turn play?
Thanks for the feedback guys, always very interested in hearing different analysis!
Will
Loading 4 Comments...
Thanks for the hand.
For the flop I think that it is close.
Pros for flop bet
We need protection as most turn cards will be bad. Villains can also have a lot of weak draws that are too weak to call a bet 3-way, so by betting you are making villains to fold some equity. We can also gain a position in this hand if button decides to fold, which would be great.
Other things about the flop
Then this is counterbalanced by the facts you said. Only thing I would disagree is that you could always exclude nut-flush-draws with something else. Nut flushes will benefit a lot if worse FD's will continue. There is a chance that you have made hand, like top two and sb will have weaker FD. It is completely possible, that button choose to invite also sb to call while adding deception. I cannot say how often that would happen, but it is possible.
Generally I think that pros are weaker than cons, so I would recommend check-calling.
Turn
Also close I guess. One of the best cards for you, as 3 is not so likely to improve villains hand. Against draws your equity just increased a lot. I don't like check-calling again that much at turn. There are still a lot of favourable rivercards, but you are asking a difficult decision. By check-calling you let villain to realize his equity in much bigger way than you do by check-raising.
When you check-call villain has possibility to hit all the draws. And when a brick comes, villain can bluff some part of the draws by making you indifferent by calling with your hand. Therefore you are able to reduce your villains edge by check-raising. You also have some outs when you are called, so you should not be in absolutely terrible shape.
I still think that this is also very close between check-call, check-raise and check-fold. Even turn-cbet is quite close to these options in EV, but that is most likely the worst option out of four, as your fold equity for turn c-bet would be very low.
Grunching.
Preflop is standard.
Flop, I'm not betting this big. More like $3.
I think our J and KQ block a healthy number of continues and we do want to deny equity and protect here, as we unblock some high-equity continues (T8Ad:dd). However, because we unblock these high-equity continues, I'm betting smaller MW because it folds out what would fold for any price without bloating the pot when our hand may be difficult to play on future streets.
Turn, I don't really understand this line or your brief explanation of it. We only have three outs to the nuts and we only have one pair, so this feels overzealous to me as a value raise. We do have the best hand a lot of the time, but not so often that I'm really trying to value bet or bloat the pot (even for protection) OOP.
Actually: is the check-raise meant to get a fold or do you want worse to call? I'm not totally clear on your goal, but I honestly don't see either happening often enough against a microstakes unknown in this spot.
I think that you may be seeing why keeping the pot smaller on the flop would have made this turn slightly (but not enormously) easier: when you check turn as played, villain can actually semibluff pretty big without even potting, and you're in a tough spot.
As played, I'm honestly check/folding the turn because, in this increasingly large pot, my visibility is so low and will remain low on most rivers. On average, we're definitely forfeiting a lot of equity, but that's the price of being out of position sometimes.
devwil and MegaGrinder already gave a lot of good thoughts. In short, I'd bet smaller on flop and I'd probably x/c turn but it's a very tough turn spot.
When you say it seems like a valid option on PJ, are you looking at your equity against his flop calling range, or have you narrowed it down to a range which bets the turn? I saw you list a flop calling range but not any assumptions about a turn betting range, which is what really matters for your turn decision.
Does betting small on the flop means, that we are playing exploitative? Or should we take the same sizing for your nutted range, too?
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