PL200 - Turn decision - Facing 2nd barrel from Aggressive player
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Bluechip
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Mid Stakes
PL200 - Turn decision - Facing 2nd barrel from Aggressive player
CO: $555.89
BN: $351.90 (Hero)
SB: $482.04
BB: $200.00
Rake is $3.00
[27/03 Edited after Phil's recommandations]
[We are 177bb effective]
[PJ assumptions edited]
Hi guys, Another spot where I struggled. Villain is a 47/32 with a 17% 3Bet, very active.
Preflop
- I think opening / calling a 3bet with this hand is fine. Any argument for not opening, or folding to the 3bet vs any player or vs this type of player?
Flop
- I Flop Top and bottom Two pair with no redraw.
- Board is heavy / semi wet (no flush draws).
- I'm excluding hands he would check : KK,A9,AQ,QJT+,Q!(9,A):(hhdd,hhcc,ccdd)
[As to now I haven't found in PJ the way to make him Cbet with only a fraction (let's say 80% as Phil recommended) of his remaining hands.]
- Against my opponent's Cbetting range I have good odds to continue, and depending on runouts I should be stacking off on low cards or folding on K, J, T, and having a decision on a 8 as it would only bring one straight (JT).
[Edit : If I'm working by exclusion with PJ, with excluding the hands he would check I now have a clear advantage on this board]
Turn
- The 3d turn doesn't change the board much
- I expect my opponent to barrel any gutshot + diamond, any pair + diamonds, any two pair+, given how active he is.
- As expected by what I observed from my opponent, he double barrels.
- My decision here is basically to shove or fold. At the moment I didn't feel confident about the decision and folded.
Here with the PJ simulation I see that this might actually be a call as I'd be getting enough odds if he's barreling with semi bluffs (range B) and made hands (range A).
What do you think the most optimal line is on this hand? Do you think it's a bad fold?
Thanks a lot for your help!
Guillaume
Loading 9 Comments...
I think this is a dry board, only 4 ranks complete a straight and there is no flush draw.
Preflop
Very easy open, and I'd always call the 3b as well.
Flop
Easy call, but here is where you need to start being careful with Pokerjuice.
It's extremely hard to accurately enter PLO ranges that resemble common strategies, especially for the player doing the betting on the flop.
You've left out all of his weak hands, like 8765, T987, KT98, 7755. People cbet these at a reasonable frequency on Ace high flops in 3b pots. You also include hands like QJT or Qxxx 2bdfd which a lot of people will check.
To be honest, it would take forever to get to a range here that I feel closely resembles a normal strategy, and I don't think that perfecting that is worth your time.
You may want to work out a range here by exclusion (remove hands that you think will usually check) rather than inclusion and then set his betting range at 'all hands' at 80% frequency or something (I think they let you do that?).
The most important takeaway, though, is that you must always think critically and not blindly trust these equity calculations - they rarely tell you the whole story. Posting here is a great way to do that!
Turn
In the posted HH it looks like you still have plenty of money behind, but on the PJ screenshot it looks like his bet is almost all-in. Which is it?
Against a near all-in bet, I shove. With 150+ behind, I fold. In between is closer.
You've left off a lot of shoving hands here (I'm gonna assume the shorter stack version is right for now): KJT9, QJT8, AJT8, AKT7, etc.
Once again, be careful with these. You'll only get out what you put in. Keep the posts coming!
Hi Phil,
Thanks a lot for the feedback.
As regards the parameters, my apologies, that's a mistake. I confirm that we are indeed 177bb effective which I didn't set correctly in the game builder, but this is correct in the HH. I corrected that in my initial post. I also can understand now why I leaned towards folding.
This might change things a bit.
I take good note of working with exclusion, plus it's way easier and might lead to less mistakes.
As up to now I haven't found how to make Opponent CBet 80% of his remaining range, but I'm on it (asking PJ founder).
Finally, I input his range by exclusion of the hands he would check on the flop (basically any KK,A9,AQ,QJT+,Q!(9,A):(hhdd,hhcc,ccdd)).
On the turn, I don't think our assumptions should change much.
I seem to have a bigger advantage now, but I take your point about being careful about my sims.
Given that it's my main tool I use, in a situation like that, what would you do?
I totally understand how we can mess up with the ranges and the danger of driving false conclusions, so my question is : Is the PJ analysis even worth here?
Hey Phil,
Here’s the answer about weighting ranges in PokerJuice made by his founder :
https://pokerjuice.com/groups/pokerjuice-support/forum/topic/faqs/
Bottom line : it’s not possible with a percentage like “80%” but is possible manually via range distribution with trial and error (we exclude a range that is roughly 20%).
It’s not really accurate but it is one option.
I’m also pointing out something I find really tough with PJ or any simulation :
- Here I assumed he would check flop with A9 and AQ, I’m assuming he check calls.
- I’m also assuming he bets Q9 bottom two mainly for protection (probably as a bet / fold), and he bets for value 99, Qq, AA.
Here’s the thing : these parameters highly influence the outcome of the simulation, and the fact that it IS or it ISNT a profitable call or shove turn.
The thing is : we have no clue how these opponents at these stakes actually react. Most of them don’t even think in terms of ranges. This logic might apply if we’re facing a good regular who’s actually splitting his range and making logical actions with each part of it.
So how do we deal with that? Where do we draw the line between making a simulation and obtaining conclusions that can either make us a tougher player or give us false conclusions, or just thinking in terms of player pool and exploitation?
In the second part (thinking in terms of exploitation), there’s a good chance our simulations will be wrong, as it’s really hard to get inside the mind of a recreational player. The only case of when we see a showdown, that can help us be more accurate with “some” parts of his range (the part where the hand he actually showed down belongs).
I really like using PJ as a tool, but this is a question I often ask myself.
Let me know if this makes sense :)
Hey Guillaume,
So, I obviously use PJ a good amount in some of my videos and I find that the more I have used it over the past couple of years the more efficiently I can try to essentially make my sims a little more specific with regards to constructing ranges. It's never going to be perfect and hardly ever going to rely on absolutes, but when I make my videos I tend to often let viewers know "Guys, this could possibly be more optimal or a little generalized" and I do that to let them know that we are trying to just build a better understanding of what's happening based on the general dynamic that is happening within each situation/hand. Without a really large sample vs a common pool/opponents we can't really confirm a whole lot about their strategies other than maybe some basic assumptions that we can back with some logic and maybe some hands that we have in fact tracked.
I think you mentioned that using hands that have seen SD to know what they are showing up with and how they played a combo within certain parts of their range is of course very smart and helpful. It can confirm some of those mentioned assumptions without us having to rely on our best guess and that's where we are prone to biases and false conclusions. The main takeaway I think is to use PJ as an aid rather than a crutch if that makes sense. It is meant to help you look at some common scenarios and try to make some simple EV calcs based on your simple, but best assumptions possible. I think a good mix of playing (IMO you will improve the most by simply playing), posting HH's within a respected forum/community such as this very forum and running some simple PJ sims and possibly sharing those with others to help come up with some solid conclusions.
Remember, we as humans are prone to informational overload. When in doubt keep the process of thinking during a hand or even hand sim as simple as possible. Simple thoughts that can help with that are some of the following:
-Who generally hits this flop texture harder? This helps determine who should be taking aggressive actions more often.
-Where am I at in my own range? This helps you determine what kind of SD value you have and if you generally should be betting for value, bluffing (hopefully with some combos that block continues and have the ability to pick up equity) or checking to manipulate the pot in a manner that best gets your combo closer to SD.
There will be more thoughts that occur of course, but I think these are two solid ones that can help players who are looking to improve upon their foundations and maybe need to just simplify the process a little.
Hope that all helped out and I encourage anyone reading this to add anything to it or to ask any questions!
basically PJ is at its best in low SPR tight PF range scenarios, and falls apart to some degree as either of those factors change (although it obv remains of some reasonable value) The last couple of years havent been especially kind to it, but when released it was easily the most powerful tool available with an extremely clean UI, so I remember the good times fondly but tbh dont really use it much any more. i did have a brief exchange with someone attached to the product a few months ago where mention was made of potential 2018 updates, so hopefully it can make up some lost ground.
Thanks Richard, thanks Nick, this helps a lot.
The reason I’m asking is because of the limited amount of tools available in PLO (I think, but I can be wrong) right now.
I think (but again can be wrong) it’s either PokerJuice or Monkersolver.
Using Monker from the discussions I had with JNandez is at the very least 100$/month for renting a server + 500$ Fixed cost for using it + setting up your 6-max sim yourself (which I believe is pretty tough when you don’t know the software) or buying it / paying for coaching from another user.
This seems like an investment to be considered.
I take Phil points, Nick points, your points about using PJ properly and not driving false ranges / conclusions.
So from what I see so far, the way to improve is therefore to post and ask but it relies to others and coaches :)
I’d like to find a way to be able to make a sim myself with a proper tool or a solver, and be able to drive my own conclusions.
I don’t know how / if that’s currently possible. :)
Hope this makes sense and again thanks for your inputs
Guillaume
Hey Guillaume,
Why did you exclude AQ (top2) from villain's betting range? In my experience this is more likely to be in players' betting range than the sets. Without doing any PJ analysis of my own, I would be ok folding this on the turn with these stacks. This would change as SPR approaches 2 and especially 1.5 (vs some1 like this I'd shove vs turn bet @ lower SPRs).
Good points in the comments about the diminishing returns of trying to nail an opponents estimated range in PJ.
Some quick things that may prove more time effective:
1) What's his 3B vs btn? If you have a large sample you may even have a decent sample of his 3B sb vs btn. 17%-3bettors come in different varieties, some ppl 3b very wide btn co and not as much OOP especially as stacks get above 130-150bbs. Most ppl have a wider 3b range sb v btn than bb v btn so if you only have stats on his 3B v btn, its probably higher than his average 3B vs btn and his 3b sb v btn is probably above 20-25% unless he's an IP-3betting-type. I have encountered players with a 17% 3b over a large sample 3betting like 15-17% otb, 20-25% bvb but around 10-12% OOP so getting a read on his positional tendencies will pay off. Folding the turn vs some1 who can barrel a reasonable amount of draws / weak stuff is a lot easier if his 3bet is 15% rather than 25-30%.
2) Does he only pot it ott with strong made hands or does he also include his strongest draws and some weak draws as well as TP-hands that aren't comfortable xc-ing vs a bet (AT87 no fd for example)? If you don't know (yet) pay close attention to his bet sizing when he barrels and his river tendencies (especially on bricks and when the most likely draw comes in).
3) Does he give up at a reasonable to high frequency on the river on bricks even after showing a lot of strength on the turn? If he does, this will allow you to get to showdown relatively cheaply as we can play closer to perfectly with hands like A944 no draw on the river as well as bluff with more confidence when we have a missed draw or even turn a hand like top-bottom into a bluff on a scare card (preferably with blockers)
And one slightly slower thing:
4) Applying some profiling I think it's fine to give him a 100% cb air in PJ, have him check KK (without A or draw) as well as checking KKJT/QJT. This player type tends to cbet all Axxx as well as any mid/under pair with gs. On the turn his bet sizing is important, some players are terribly unbalanced when they take this line and this sizing could mean a strong hand almost always (topbot+ and maybe any 2p) or at least 2nd nfd+ where as they size smaller with tp+gs, naked Ad, FDs they dont want to / "cant" stack off with vs a raise. I wouldnt assume he has a sizing tell like this until proven otherwise though. Giving him any pair+fd,gs+fd,oe+fd,QJT,JT+pair and topbottom as well as Ad seems fine on the turn. Check your equity distribution in PJ for the river vs that range especially for the A/9 and non-diamond 8/7/6/5/4/2. If your equity looks enticing on those cards (it will be lower after you face a potential river betting range) I may be tempted to call turn and look him up on the good river next time with a hand of similar strength. The more honest he plays on the river the more likely I am to call on the turn but vs a strong range we are burning money calling the turn. Rivers dont play out well for us even vs a range that includes plenty of draws/"non-strong stuff" since were still not "thrilled" calling another big bet on the better cards (A/9, non diamond 7-2) if our opponent is capable of following through with bluffs at a reasonable frequency.
Hope that helps, and I should probably add the disclaimer that I hate folding, especially the best hand ;)
-spassewr
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