PL100 - River decision - Straight on Flush board
Posted by Bluechip
Posted by Bluechip posted in Low Stakes
PL100 - River decision - Straight on Flush board
CO: $73.56
BN: $65.95 (Hero)
SB: $115.11
BB: $105.55
Hi guys,
Here is another river spot where I struggle. Villain is a loose aggressive 65/38 who's been fairly active.
The reason why I'm only 66bb is because I implemented a stop loss rule that was active at the time.
Preflop
- I think opening AQJ2r only on the button is fine, also it has to be folded to a 3B and it is a fold from any other position.
Flop
- On the Flop, I have TPTK with the nut gutshot, the Ad blocker, so I think a CBet is fine.
- When VIllain calls, given his loose tendency I'm putting him on a very wide range :
T4,Q4,KK,(4+,89+!Q):(cchh,ccdd,hhdd) //// to the exclusion of QT+ with which given my stack he would probably check/raise jam
Turn
- With a SPR of 2 on a relatively safe turn, having the Ad nut blocker, I'm potting to get stacks in to what might be the best hand a lot of the time.
Even against T4, Q4, KK I still have good equity if called.
- When he calls I'm putting him on a tighter range given the pot sized bet and the diamonds : (89+!Q):dd,J9,Q / excluding KK and T4+
River
- This is tricky for me here.
He's essentially putting the rest of my stack which is giving me 3.4:1 odds ( I need 23% equity to break even).
If I'm splitting his range into A/ Flushes, B/ Straights and Top set (incorrect value shoves)...
I should fold here, having a -5€ EV call here.
What do you think of this spot and analysis?
How would you have played the hand and why?
Thanks a lot guys
Guillaume
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