PL025 - Good bluffing candidate on this board runout?
Posted by ICbetU
Posted by
ICbetU
posted in
Low Stakes
PL025 - Good bluffing candidate on this board runout?
SB: $14.63
BB: $78.33
UTG: $58.14
MP: $19.42 (Hero)
CO: $15.20
We are 15$ deep aka 60BB deep with CO who calls our open from the MP.
Flop: I dont like the idea of check calling, I have the T blocker, 9 blocker for two pair/ trips, a gutshot to the nuts and a backdoor nut flush draw. Bet folding this flop, but I think villain never slowplays here and sometimes even ends up folding AJxx and Kxxx hands without fds or gutters.
Turn: His calling range here I make up to be slowplayed monsters, J9+, fds and Jxxx+gutshots. I think he folds the majority of his middle range that he called flop with to a turn bet, and even some two pair hands like AKJx. I also pick up the nfd which gives me a really concealed big value bet otr. He most likely raises all of his straights he called flop with at this point, so I think we can barrel river to finish him because of his middlish weak calling range on this lockdown board + draws.
River: We brick, I pot into villain, and he ends up tank calling with [8c 7c 8h Jh].
I think his play is okay, he ends up with a reasonable call on the river seeing he has to call some of his 87 combos, but having the two clubs make it debatable. If he calls turn, I dont think he can fold this river, but obv there are a lot of turn cards where I barrel him off in this spot.
Do we have better bluff candidates here? Is this a good one, why/why not?
Loading 7 Comments...
OOP , i x/fold this. Turn seems standard and river is close. Depends on how fast ppl play their 2pair ++ fd type hands.
Give any reasons to check fold flop OOP vs IP?
Again, what hands are better to 3-barrel this?
You got nothing, besides the bd nfd and villain can have many strong made hands that just wont fold often enough. The Q is quiet a silly out bringing 4 to a straight this less implied odds.
Best bluffing hards are often QQ,TT with either clubs or spades. Your hand is one of good bluffing hands, but in 6max CO has many KK JJ hands that may not fold to triple barrel, so I am not sure I would bluff this at plo25. I am probably shutting down on the river even if I started betting on the flop.
Yeah, but its not important what stakes we are playing, Im just thinking if this is a good candidate at all. We dont have many QQ or escpecially not many TT combos, so I feel like we need some other hands as well :)
I dont think you need to worry about balancing on lowstakes plo.
I play the same 3 barrels like you once I hold blockers and dont get raised but in these spots I tend to change my standard. Here is why:
Again, I play the hand like you, these are just fresh thoughts of myself rethinking about those blockerbarrels wich I really enjoy playing in PLO. In your hand, I wouldn't bet pot at the river because if I'd be villain sitting on a made hand and I have a decent understanding about poker in general Id think the following:
"wait, this guy does actually know how to bet potsize? why didn't he do so with nutstraight on flop and turn? nonsense, i call"
so, betting same size on river like flop/turn isnt only cheaper, it doesn't give any tell. question left: Should we start blowing up the pot big with straight/low blocker and a bdfd here? I feel your problem checking bdnfd. but lets face again that runner runner gets there only ~7% so this cant be the main reason to start a 3barrel and blowing up a big pot.
I prefer villain donking into us and we raise his bet: more money to win, more FE, but thats another story
intuitively, betting OTF seems bad as it hits reasonable flatting pre range quite hand.
tho, argument can be made that we have some equity,but no enough to put this holding into c/calling range
so, OP didn't give us any ranges, so I put what I assume standard\tight
https://postimg.org/image/p9yr6zuw3/
flop ranges
#A=rasing range
#B - calling range
#C = rest=folds
so, FE here is ~25%.
don't know maybe peeling range is too wide
https://postimg.org/image/tyer26k2r/
Turn.
he peels pretty much the same stuff he did OTF (probably I'm too optimistic here and we might put some weak cc and more OESD w\ no pair into folding range)
https://postimg.org/image/bhkcbd44j/
River
here, I'd like to hear some suggestions about what his bluffcatching range should look like.
when we put KJ+, and 5J+:T,Q, then he has over 60 of calling, so its about break even bluff,(right?)
ps. for whatever reason cannot upload picture directly here
Be the first to add a comment