Overplaying pretty hand?
Posted by Shutoutfan
Posted by
Shutoutfan
posted in
Low Stakes
Overplaying pretty hand?
HJ: $8.76
CO: $13.98
BN: $11.48 (Hero)
SB: $10
BB: $13.76
UTG: $10
CO: $13.98
BN: $11.48 (Hero)
SB: $10
BB: $13.76
UTG: $10
Preflop
($0.15)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
Q
8
J
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, SB folds, BB calls $0.25
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, SB folds, BB calls $0.25
Flop
($1.10)
9
4
T
(3 Players)
BB bets $1.05,
CO folds,
Hero raises to $4.20,
BB raises to $12.36,
Hero calls $6.93
The hand looks really pretty on the flop. Lots of outs. But since it is only a singleraised pot would a call otf be the better play? His donking range are probably twopair + sets which he want to protect against all the draws. So is a raise overkill or could we consider it a raise for value? Villain: 60/32/8 Agg. 1.6 donkbet 28%
I am asking because when I checked the hand afterwards I had only about 52% on the flop and if I discount the rake it seems to be a high variance move to get it in on the flop? Or am I completly wrong?
Loading 2 Comments...
we're 54.26% vs TT,99 only
if he has some NFD+pair or Top2 (not likely, as V is passive, but still..) it gets even better. It could be described (probably) as "high-variance spot" - but w\ invested money and our actual hand I see no fold here.
You played this well. Your hand is a complete monster in a HU pot and has an equity edge over some truly massive hands (TT for example). As it happens, you're basically only behind overpairs/sets + bigger flush draws which are super uncommon 'cas the overpairs often 3-bet pre and the sets are hard to have (even harder with K- or A-high hearts). You can also have a guy in HORRIBLE shape (you are >65% against T987 with spades and hearts which is just insane given that hand will think it has the immortal nuts).
So yeah, played perfectly and if you happened to run into AA+hearts or w/e then that's just a huge cooler and you probably still had like 40% so sucks if you didn't hit.
Note: Raising this makes even more sense against a passive guy 'cas he'll probably have a stacking off hand quite a lot which is spectacular for us given how much equity we have.
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