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Overpair + dubblegutter multiway OOP

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Overpair + dubblegutter multiway OOP

BN: $71.27
SB: $25 (Hero)
BB: $28.28
UTG: $38.30
HJ: $98.91
CO: $50.21
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt Q Q 6 T
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.85, BN calls $0.85, Hero calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60
Flop ($3.40) 8 3 9 (4 Players)
Hero bets $2.50, BB folds, CO calls $2.50, BN calls $2.50
Turn ($10.90) 8 3 9 2 (3 Players)

CO is a reg. 25/17 with pretty normal postflop aggression. He has a low fold to cbet (23% over 300 hands) so we might assume that he might peel flops a little lighter vs donkbets.

BTN is 56/25 over 100 hands. I haven't seen too much of him postflop tho. He seems to be pretty alright postflop. F/T/R 30/21/10, FtCbet 75%.

Flop: I decided to donkbet b/c I have a pretty strong hand and there is a significant chance of it getting x'd through since BB is nitty, CO is not gonna bet too light with BTN behind him and BTN isn't the type of player to blindly bet everything here. While on the one hand seeing turns doesn't hurt us too much we certainly will like our hand less on most turns. 

 I expect CO to call with AA,KK, JT9, JT8, 976 and stuff like AK9*. I do think he will raise sets, 2pair (that mostly have some gutter or better to with it) sometimes and wraps as well.

BTN will probably call many straightdraws, TP+gutter, maybe 9+overcards. I'm not sure if he would raise wraps.

Turn: Assuming those ranges are somewhat accurate I certainly like the turn vs their range, right? 

SPR=2. By betting again I think I will get a ton of folds from CO and also quite a few from BTN. If I bet I am probably commited to calling 1 shove tho which feels like overplaying my hand. 

I'm not sure if I like checking. X/folding feels very weak and it seems bad to donk this flop and then x/f a really good turn. X/calling leads to very weird river-SPR-spots and lots of bad folds and bad calls I'd imagine.

Briefly said. I'm lost in this hand and esp OTT. Can someone help me?

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