Overpair + dubblegutter multiway OOP
Posted by Suniram
Posted by
Suniram
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Low Stakes
Overpair + dubblegutter multiway OOP
SB: $25 (Hero)
BB: $28.28
UTG: $38.30
HJ: $98.91
CO: $50.21
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.85, BN calls $0.85, Hero calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60
CO is a reg. 25/17 with pretty normal postflop aggression. He has a low fold to cbet (23% over 300 hands) so we might assume that he might peel flops a little lighter vs donkbets.
BTN is 56/25 over 100 hands. I haven't seen too much of him postflop tho. He seems to be pretty alright postflop. F/T/R 30/21/10, FtCbet 75%.
Flop: I decided to donkbet b/c I have a pretty strong hand and there is a significant chance of it getting x'd through since BB is nitty, CO is not gonna bet too light with BTN behind him and BTN isn't the type of player to blindly bet everything here. While on the one hand seeing turns doesn't hurt us too much we certainly will like our hand less on most turns.
I expect CO to call with AA,KK, JT9, JT8, 976 and stuff like AK9*. I do think he will raise sets, 2pair (that mostly have some gutter or better to with it) sometimes and wraps as well.
BTN will probably call many straightdraws, TP+gutter, maybe 9+overcards. I'm not sure if he would raise wraps.
Turn: Assuming those ranges are somewhat accurate I certainly like the turn vs their range, right?
SPR=2. By betting again I think I will get a ton of folds from CO and also quite a few from BTN. If I bet I am probably commited to calling 1 shove tho which feels like overplaying my hand.
I'm not sure if I like checking. X/folding feels very weak and it seems bad to donk this flop and then x/f a really good turn. X/calling leads to very weird river-SPR-spots and lots of bad folds and bad calls I'd imagine.
Briefly said. I'm lost in this hand and esp OTT. Can someone help me?
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Bet/call turn. You often get CO to fold dry overpairs that may have peeled. You also have the best hand a lot of the time and by checking you let them realize their considerable equity is pretty bad for you. So just bet/call 7$ for value I guess is what I'd call it.
That's what I thought too. CO just has to fold so many hands if I lead again.
I think betting only $7 into $11 is not a good idea with any hand. It gives good prices to draws and sets up tougher river SPRs. If I lead again OTT it's fairly obvious that I'm not folding a singnificant amount vs shoves so might as well pot, right?
I think you want to have enough stack left on rivers in case you were leading turn with some high equity draw(say wrap that turned FD), but doesn't have any showdown value on the river. You'd like to have enough in stacks to generate some FE on rivers.
I think it's a fari point if I was concerned about balance but since I'm playing most hands at my stakes as if it was in a vacuum (obv. only to a certain level of 'unbalancedness') I'm more concerned about the straight out most +EV line (not longterm but in this actual hand).
Do you still prefer betting smaller even in a vacuum?
Why is that not a good idea? Betting 75% or 66% pot is very standard in many situations imo.
Betting this amount gives great odds to draws. I def don't have a hand that wants to invite other players to call so I try to maximize FE by betting big. Since I'm superrarely donk/folding OTT + I don't need to balance at 25plo rush I feel like this is maximum EV (at least for donking again OTT). That's just my thoughts tho. No math or w/e to back it up.
Also I feel like this is a spot where my range is really strong (obv) and I don't have bluffs/weak semibluffs. I don't know how this should affect my betsizing tbh (HELP PLZ!). I only know that generally we should bet bigger if we bet a polarized range and smaller if the range is merged. I would really appreciate some in put on this!
Why don't you consider x-raising turn?
Both x-calling and betting may lead to weird spots otr as you don't get your stacks in. If you do check and both villians do after, SPR wont be that awkward and i am sure most of decisions would be ordinary.
Hmm, I don't think that players will bet/fold OTT. Maybe BTN will do some weird bet small/fold occasionally but that's not gonna happen to often. I don't expect either of the players to bet a worse hand than mine. CO might bet some AA/KK+sd if I check since he can assume BTN is kinda weak and I will give up quite sometimes after checking. Since I'm crushed by those hands (which is prolly the bottom of COs betting range) I don't wanna x/shove into that.
By x/r (without much FE) I feel like I make it easy for my opponents to gii with their strong hands and x through with their weaker ones/draws. Thats my reasoning for not x/shoving.
Leading flop doesn't seem to accomplish anything in this spot and in fact is extremely -EV, we have no backdoors and there's going to be a flush draw by the turn 75% of the time. The only good card for us is a J, a Q brings in the most likely draw as does a 7 when we hit the lower end. Seems like a very easy c/f.
Not a fan of a dlead here with out any BD cards. Also with the picture that you painted it seems like the flop might get checked through which is not a terrible results. Once on the turn hand equities will change quite a bit and we might be able to find more folds than we would with the donk lead on the flop. I expect that on all turns that we would double barrel to get the same fold frequency or better barrelling turn and river.
As played I would b/c and bet big, I could see just betting pot here. Reason I like a bet and a big one is it's going to put a ton of pressure on the CO. He will not be able to continue with a lot of the weak part of his range that has us beat because the button is left to act and they started the hand with 200bbs. It also will look strong that you have lead into four players once and three on the turn. River would be interesting if called and not raised.
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