OOP Multiway pot, tough turn spot
Posted by Andrey Kravchenko
Posted by Andrey Kravchenko posted in Low Stakes
OOP Multiway pot, tough turn spot
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $10.00
SB: $11.25
BB: $21.14 (Hero)
UTG: $54.03
MP: $11.09
CO: $6.14
SB: $11.25
BB: $21.14 (Hero)
UTG: $54.03
MP: $11.09
CO: $6.14
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is BB with
9
4
K
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($1.10)
3
6
K
, , ,
Turn
($4.25)
3
6
K
8
, , , , ,
River
($30.91)
3
6
K
8
7
MP looks like a REG 35/18 3b 6% WSTD 21 through 51 hands, CO looks like fish 33/11 3B 0% WTSD 33% through 9 hands.
Up to the turn, I think it looks like a pretty standard.
What about this turn, now I think we should always call, basically, if we ship it then we are probably hoping MP folds AA with hearts or some pair+draw maybe that's way too ambitious.
We are hoping to GII with fish obviously, also can't put REG on too many value hands, K8xx, KKxx, fd+str8 draw, AhhKxx, (66? 33-100%? in his range)
By my calculations, we need at least 34.1% in order for break-even check-shove GII OTT, but I found out we have 36%.
Please correct me if I'm wrong about break-even shove number (34,1%)
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