OOP Multiway pot, tough turn spot

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OOP Multiway pot, tough turn spot

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) BN: $10.00
SB: $11.25
BB: $21.14 (Hero)
UTG: $54.03
MP: $11.09
CO: $6.14
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is BB with 9 4 K Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.35, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25
Flop ($1.10) 3 6 K
Hero checks, MP bets $1.05, CO calls $1.05, Hero calls $1.05
Turn ($4.25) 3 6 K 8
Hero checks, MP bets $2.04, CO calls $2.04, Hero raises to $12.23, MP calls $7.65 and is all in, CO calls $2.70 and is all in
River ($30.91) 3 6 K 8 7

MP looks like a REG 35/18 3b 6% WSTD 21 through 51 hands, CO looks like fish 33/11 3B 0% WTSD 33% through 9 hands.
Up to the turn, I think it looks like a pretty standard.
What about this turn, now I think we should always call, basically, if we ship it then we are probably hoping MP folds AA with hearts or some pair+draw maybe that's way too ambitious.
We are hoping to GII with fish obviously, also can't put REG on too many value hands, K8xx, KKxx, fd+str8 draw, AhhKxx, (66? 33-100%? in his range)
By my calculations, we need at least 34.1% in order for break-even check-shove GII OTT, but I found out we have 36%.
Please correct me if I'm wrong about break-even shove number (34,1%)

4 Comments

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menofold 6 years, 3 months ago

On the turn we do not rep. anything, except in rare occasions K8 or 88. What will fold are weaker F- & SD, which we are dominating. We are last to act so we are able to realize your Eq. Same suggestion I got from you in 1 of my last 2 threads.

devwil 6 years, 3 months ago

Grunching.

Preflop seems fine. Probably too good to fold.

Flop... I'm not the biggest advocate of leading out (especially MW), but this may be a much better bet/fold than check/call. You just have really poor visibility moving forward, so forcing PFR to define their range less vaguely than if they c-bet has some merit (plus you may take down the pot immediately given your okayish blockers).

Turn as played... it's weird. You have top pair and two reasonably strong flush draws, but you could be drawing dead MW tbh. I think you want to just check/call... it's just kind of hard to be pushing a ton of equity here with only 2 nut outs (Ac, Ah... both of which may be in your opponents' hands dominating you twice over!). This may even be a check/fold (but if it is, the flop probably should have been).

Plus, PFR went from a PSB to half-potting between the flop and turn, so you may be able to get to showdown relatively cheaply with a non-nut flush if it comes.

And considering the action so far, I don't think that x/r'ing the turn is a move that has a ton of fold equity.

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