We don't have huge reads on Villain, he seems laggy preflop but very passive postflop: 44/25 3b 18, but has an AFq of only 18%.

His raise on the river was actually the first and only agressive action he took on the river in 80 hands bringing his AFq OTR to 9% (1/11). River timing seemed quite quick (def no more than 2 seconds), but I assume he was 1tabling at the time.

My population read for this line (call, call, potraise) says that this should be a fairly easy, but obviously exploitative fold, which we wouldnt be making against any decent reg.

Some quick calculations in PPT:

I still have a fair amount of people in my blog arguing / not understating my fold here, so would like to hear your opinion on that spot.