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Nut blockers on draw-heavy board

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Nut blockers on draw-heavy board

Villain is on the fishy side but haven't seen him get out of line.

My hand seems like a good bluffing candidate overall.
However, I'm not sure whether I should be double barreling with this particular combo, since I pick up some equity on the turn.

It seems to me that both betting and checking are fine.
Does the additional equity that I pick up on the turn make this hand a check-back some of the time?

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TomF 4 years, 8 months ago

Hi Pacny,
I think you have an excellent candidate for c-betting and then a barrel (especially on the 9c) .
For the sake of analysis let say the villain raises QQ,88,55,Q8:hh,Ahh:(Q,76,JT9),JT9:hh for value/protection of equity as the oop player on this board.
Let's also state that he x/calls with Khh,Jhh,hh:(JT,T9,97,96,76,Q,53),Q8!(hh),Q5,JT9. He only has this 21% of the time (if he has a bb v bt open calling pecentage of 55%) and with your exact hand you are a slight equity favourite (52%/48%).
You block the flushes from coming in and you heavily block the best combo draws.
With all of this information I would bet 75% on the turn and betting most rivers that aren't a Q or a heart (that's only 10 cards you have to be worried about and even then you win some of the time on hearts at showdown when he checks river), Also your hand can still improve on a 6,9,T which I believe is important because your hand is not just a bare bluff.
He will probably x/call two streets with the above calling range with his fd combos and he will almost always x/raise if he's binked the JT gutshot. So your are going to have to fire a 3rd bullet on most rivers (excluding the above mentioned) because he will still have some Q:hh that beats you, I would use a full pot size.

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