non-nut-combodraw in 3bet-pot
Posted by Suniram
Posted by Suniram posted in Low Stakes
non-nut-combodraw in 3bet-pot
SB: $25.93
BB: $19.01
UTG: $26.23
HJ: $9.26
CO: $32.66 (Hero)
BN: $35.70
BB: $19.01
UTG: $26.23
HJ: $9.26
CO: $32.66 (Hero)
BN: $35.70
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
4
K
T
J
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $1.75
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $1.75
Flop
($5.35)
8
2
9
(2 Players)
SB bets $3.75
Villain plays tight so far. 18/11 over 90 hands with a 7,3% 3b (3 out of 41). In retrospect I def should've folded preflop.
Flop: We flop decent but only have around 30% vs his gii range, which prolly is sth like OP+fd, 2p, sets, 9+wrap, 9/8+fd, NFD+pair or sd, oesd+9.
It just feels nitty to just peel here but is it better? His cbet size doesn't exclude FE since it's not very big, which makes me wanna shove more.
I did the math on the semibluff-shove and, if I'm right, we would need him to fold 46% which is not gonna happen.
x($9,1) + (1-x)*(0,3*$28,7 + ,7*-$23,43)
9,1x + (1-x)*($8,61 - $16,401)
9,1x + (1-x) *(-$7,791)
9,1x + (-$7,791 + 7,791x)
16,891x = $7,791
x = ,46 -> 46%
So, we just call flop rite?
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