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non-nut-combodraw in 3bet-pot

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

non-nut-combodraw in 3bet-pot

SB: $25.93
BB: $19.01
UTG: $26.23
HJ: $9.26
CO: $32.66 (Hero)
BN: $35.70
Preflop ($0.35) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 4 K T J
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $1.75
Flop ($5.35) 8 2 9 (2 Players)
SB bets $3.75

Villain plays tight so far. 18/11 over 90 hands with a 7,3% 3b (3 out of 41). In retrospect I def should've folded preflop.

Flop: We flop decent but only have around 30% vs his gii range, which prolly is sth like OP+fd, 2p, sets, 9+wrap, 9/8+fd, NFD+pair or sd, oesd+9. 
It just feels nitty to just peel here but is it better? His cbet size doesn't exclude FE since it's not very big, which makes me wanna shove more. 

I did the math on the semibluff-shove and, if I'm right, we would need him to fold 46% which is not gonna happen. 

x($9,1) + (1-x)*(0,3*$28,7 + ,7*-$23,43)


9,1x + (1-x)*($8,61 - $16,401)

9,1x + (1-x) *(-$7,791)

9,1x + (-$7,791 + 7,791x)

16,891x = $7,791

x = ,46 -> 46%

So, we just call flop rite?

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