non-nut-combodraw in 3bet-pot
Posted by Suniram
Posted by
Suniram
posted in
Low Stakes
non-nut-combodraw in 3bet-pot
SB: $25.93
BB: $19.01
UTG: $26.23
HJ: $9.26
CO: $32.66 (Hero)
BN: $35.70
BB: $19.01
UTG: $26.23
HJ: $9.26
CO: $32.66 (Hero)
BN: $35.70
Preflop
($0.35)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
4
K
T
J
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $1.75
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BN folds, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $1.75
Flop
($5.35)
8
2
9
(2 Players)
SB bets $3.75
Villain plays tight so far. 18/11 over 90 hands with a 7,3% 3b (3 out of 41). In retrospect I def should've folded preflop.
Flop: We flop decent but only have around 30% vs his gii range, which prolly is sth like OP+fd, 2p, sets, 9+wrap, 9/8+fd, NFD+pair or sd, oesd+9.
It just feels nitty to just peel here but is it better? His cbet size doesn't exclude FE since it's not very big, which makes me wanna shove more.
I did the math on the semibluff-shove and, if I'm right, we would need him to fold 46% which is not gonna happen.
x($9,1) + (1-x)*(0,3*$28,7 + ,7*-$23,43)
9,1x + (1-x)*($8,61 - $16,401)
9,1x + (1-x) *(-$7,791)
9,1x + (-$7,791 + 7,791x)
16,891x = $7,791
x = ,46 -> 46%
So, we just call flop rite?
Loading 2 Comments...
yeah math is the way :D
but first of all we have to take care to equity distribution of our hand versus opponents range.
using again propokertools we can 2 things.
effective stack will be on flop : 23.43
then spr will be : 23.43/5.35=4.38
select avg(riverEquity(Hero)) /* what is the avg equity for hero */ as AVG_Equity,then you'll need to stack off on flop on a EV0 point : 4.38/(4.38*2+1)=>44,9%
here we go to look how often you have this equity versus his range et what your average equity when you'll stack off !
count(minHVREquity(Hero,flop,0.449)) /* how often the hero's hand have 0.449 (44.9%) of equity on the flop
*/ as Frequence_hitflop
from game='omahahi', syntax='Generic',
board='***',
Hero='4hKsTcJc',
Vilain='7%'
Results:
Trials
AVG_EQUITY :0.33 (33%)
FREQUENCE_HITFLOP :29.84%
your average equity will be versus his range : 33% (not enough to stack off with the SPR regarless of FE off course)
and you'll have 44.9% of equity on only 29.84 flops.
if you make maths with this informations, yep, fold preflop is better i think (not enough time to do the math myself for the moment ;) )
as played, calling flop ? but to gii on wich turn ?
if we're "affraid" by flush cards and by all our non nuts outs => better to fold now!
if villain will tell us how strong he is checking to giving up on our outs it's closer but i'm not really fan of this line/plan.
you can think about these spots making trees with all cards to come, on wich you'll be ok to stack off and how often it will happen
add all the situations : 9/45*ev_turn_on_this_cards+6/45*ev_turn............+30/45*(-flop call)
and you have a pretty clear situation of the value off calling or not here
have a nice day
Not too much of a math guy but there are 2 problems imo with calling. One is that you don't have any SDV, the other with far more impact is that you'll get into bad situations on pretty much any turn. What if you make a flush? Would you call further bets? Would you valuebet yourself? Against what? Do you think you have implieds? What do you think he will do on a 7/Q? Put a lot of money in with bare OPs etc?
I think you just have to raise the flop, when you call and improve you'll either be dead or won't get many implieds. You can't be horribly wrong with OESD+FD even though you're right that his gii range is quite strong. You also deny all his non-drawing hands their equity.
Be the first to add a comment