nl5: Facing flop minraise from fish in 3bet pot

Posted 4 years, 4 months ago

Blinds: $0.02/$0.05 (6 Players) UTG: $5.15
MP: $4.58
CO: $5.00
BN: $6.41
SB: $5.00
BB: $9.81 (Hero)

64/23 flop raise cbet: 4% (22 sample)

Preflop ($0.07) Hero is BB with A A

UTG raises to $0.15, MP calls $0.15, CO folds, BN calls $0.15, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.75, UTG folds, MP calls $0.60, BN folds

Flop ($1.82) Q 7 4

Hero bets $1.00, MP raises to $2.10, Hero raises to $9.06 and is all in, MP calls $1.73 and is all in

Turn ($14.71) Q 7 4 2

River ($14.71) Q 7 4 2 2

Final Pot MP lost and shows two pair, Sevens and Fours.
BB wins and shows two pair, Aces and Deuces.
BB wins $9.09
Rake is $0.39

Correct me if I have some flaws in my analysis.

Giving that villain is short and minraising there is no FE so its equal as shove and we need to be right 29.8%
29.8% = 2.83$(size of my call if villain shoves) divided by 9.48$ (size of the final pot if villain shoves) mutiply by 100 (to get percentage)
Lets give villain only pessimistic value range : QQ,77,44,Q7s,Q4s,74s,Q7o,Q4o,74o

We are behind.
3. What if we add KK ?

So we go broke here as we are BE vs villain value range.