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my first post. dide i play it wrong?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

my first post. dide i play it wrong?

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/19320550_8C66908042

15 Comments

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DirtyD 8 years, 10 months ago

The good old triple-sigh-call. Every decision point, we're not thrilled but I think our hand is a little too good to fold.

Cthulu23 8 years, 10 months ago

I think it's marginally losing. Depends quite a bit on the squeezer and on player 6. 1st how tight squeezer is, since you block Kc it's more likely for him to have AAXXc which he bets and then the raiser should be very set heavy a lot, especially since you block the strflushdraw with your 5 so 56cc7X is impossible and i don't see him raising wrap+non nutflushdraw. So 3way you need 30% and in this scenario you're 22% or 24% i think. Now let's say squeezer is betting random stuff and you're getting it in hu. You need 43% and i don't know how to put it exactly in a syntax but against AcXXXc and TTXX you're 42%. In reality i think he's only raising nfdraw+over, nfdraw and gutshot or better and top 2p+fdraw (few combos) and maybe nfdraw+top pair don't know if he realizes that over+nfdraw is 4-8% more equity than top pair + nfdraw. Also he raises top set but it depends how tight he opens since if he's a nit you won't have many combos of that. At the end of the day you can just flip a coin and decide if you wanna gamble for 270bbs or not since this play will be very high variance.

keva20 8 years, 10 months ago

thx for the feedback cyhulu23, i think its pretty bad call after a few days thinking about it. the 3bet surtenly must have been aces if he has AXcc he will sertenly go with that hand, on the other hand i put him on TT (the reraiser on the flop) all and all i think its a prretty poor play on my part considering all the fackters.

Cthulu23 8 years, 10 months ago

You're only losing a few bb in a spot that comes every blue moon :P No biggy :D The tilt that might come after losing a huge pot like this is the real problem.

keva20 8 years, 10 months ago

a few? 300bb? that was justt poor play all and all

DirtyD 8 years, 10 months ago

Maybe... to really solve this spot we need to create some assumptions about villains' ranges and crunch some numbers. There's a temptation to beat yourself up when you lose a big pot and assume you must have made a mistake, you must have deserved it. But the reality of PLO is sometimes you lose a huge pot where you did everything right. Not saying this hand was perfect, I'm actually not sure, but the play has to be evaluated on its merits, not the result of the hand.

DirtyD 8 years, 10 months ago

Here's copy-and-pasted an attempt at a sim.

Omaha Hi Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Th4c3c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AdKc5c2d 26.42% 152,340 12,441
6%:(TT, Acc, T4, T3, 765:cc, 652:cc, 44, 33) 34.74% 203,131 10,718
30%!AA:(TT, Acc, T4, T3, 765:cc, 652:cc, 44, 33) 38.84% 229,918 6,387

If that's accurate and neither of our opponents are ever folding it would be a fold on the flop since we need 31% to stack off.

However, when BB folds we only need 44% heads up and we have 46.6% against the range I gave cutoff. So if BB folds often enough, it could be a profitable get in.

Overall I'd guess it's still losing but it really is pretty close.

addict63 8 years, 10 months ago

I think pre flop this is bad. I would fold or 3bet vs the initial raise, leaning towards folding. Then it is an easy fold to the 3bet.

Once this flop hits though not alot you can do. Cant be calling oop with this hand to fold this flop

DirtyD 8 years, 10 months ago

Can we really fold to the 3bet? I know our hand doesn't do great against a squeeze range but we are getting an amazing price closing the action.

addict63 8 years, 10 months ago

I said once the flop is out, its a no brainer to get it in. I would fold pre though.

I play plo25 zoom, stats are 22/18 10.6 3b if that makes me a nit :)

DirtyD 8 years, 10 months ago

Well you vpip really low and 3bet a lot. You're probably folding some hands that would be profitable cold calls. This hand might be an example.

Stlplo 8 years, 10 months ago

The most interesting part of the hand is pre. We could call or 3b the first time, then fold, call, or 4b the 2nd time.

As for flop it's likely we're around breaking even but we should call to increase variance.

Addict63 I think your PF stats are awesome.

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