Middle set 150bbs deep on J94s

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Middle set 150bbs deep on J94s

BB: $1332.74
UTG: $764.65
HJ: $220
CO: $510.46
BN: $532.06
SB: $687.22 (Hero)
Preflop ($6.00) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 8 9 8 9
UTG folds, HJ raises to $14, CO folds, BN folds, Hero calls $12, BB calls $10
Flop ($42.00) J 4 9 (3 Players)
Hero bets $28, BB raises to $84, HJ folds
BB is a slightly losing (splashy preflop) multitabling reg. Kind of a 3bet monkey but pretty straightforward postflop. Haven't played with him that much. HJ doesn't CB much so I lead hoping BB folds so I can play vs. HJ. BB raises however 150 bbs deep. Now what??

Against a range like (JJ,44,J9:Acc,QTJ9,QT8,KQT:cc,T87:cc):30% I have 40% and if that is his true range my play is pretty easy. I call and XR a good turn for me. But is this a realistic range at 2/4?

Let's say that he is 3 times more likely to raise topset than all the other hands. Then his range looks like this:
(JJ@3,(44,J9:Acc,QTJ9,QT8,KQT:cc,T87:cc)@1):30%

Now, I have only 29%. So, I just fold my middle set on this flop?

31 Comments

Loading 31 Comments...

phil long 12 years, 3 months ago
dont think people are auto raising bare J9 and the wraps with no fd to go with them. Still think its a call based on how the hand will play out, if hes pretty str8fwd then if a really obvious draw card gets there you can fold cos he might not still bet JJ. And if he checks and the river bricks you can credibly bluff. If the turn bricks and you get it in you still get it in terrible vs top set but now have good equity vs the draws. I could be convinced otherwise but that seems the standard play
pacmang 12 years, 3 months ago
It doesn't make sense to me to lead/fold this hand. I think if you are leading this hand it is with the intention of not letting ppl take free cards and be able to put all the money in once someone raises. It's more interesting since its deeper but I'd still call here.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
I think you have to call here given that you are near the top of your range. Do you have history with this guy? Do you donk a more draw-y/weak or value heavy donking range? If he thinks you are donking more draws or weak hands that are too bad to X/C or X/R he is more likely to raise his best combo draws. However, if you tend to donk to protect your value hands he will be more skewed towards raising with his strong made hands.
cAp217 12 years, 3 months ago
Looking at your description on the BB preflop and stating his range, I am finding it hard to believe he doesnt 3b almost all of the hands preflop that you are puttin him on. You are assiging him the absolute top of his range here but you say hes a 3b monkey preflop... Doesnt add up to me.
RiverOfTears 12 years, 3 months ago
You guys are giving this guy way too much credit :) He is a multitabler and not a deep thinker. Also HJ is sitting behind with only 200 so I don't think he is raising me light at all. Regarding my leading range I think it is pretty balanced in this spot with a passive player in position.

I am not sure why he would 3bet the majority of the range I put him on? These are 3 card combos and a 3bet would be a squeeze and he is not a complete maniac. So I definitely think he can have most of these hands (maybe I should have removed the premium combinations).

I think I really like phil long's approach. Just calling and playing my whole range on later streets. Yes, I am at the top of my range but I also have the hand with the absolute least amount of eq against the hand he is repping.

So, I did call. Turn was a brick. And he bet about 80% again on the turn. This narrows his range towards JJ even further. Now I have 27% vs the (debatable) range I put him on. Time to muck?
jloo87 12 years, 3 months ago
I don't think a brick turn narrows his range down to JJ even further. Unless he reads you as someone who c/r turns a lot i think most people here barrel their entire range flop raising range on the turn.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
I agree with Junzhong that he will barrel his entire flop raising range on a brick turn. That being said I'd raise AI. Your range is pretty accurate, but he could also be raising hands like Acc, Acc+MP+GS, Acc+OESD, etc. Also, I think he'd be raising JJ more frequently, but he'd also raise a lot of the other hands you've given him, so I put JJ as twice as likely, not three times. Plus, there is only one hand that is crushing you and he can have a ton of strong semi-bluffs this deep.

http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=JJ%3A30%25%402%2C+%28Acc%2C+AccQT%2C+AccJ%2C+Ac98c7%2C+J9%3AAcc%2C+QTJ9%2C+QT8%2C+KQT%3Acc%2C+T87%3Acc%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic
RiverOfTears 12 years, 3 months ago
I agree that his range is not narrowed a whole lot by betting again but a little bit it is. People sometimes raise and give up or raise and take free card in position. Lenny, you put naked Acc in your range. Must have been a mistake right? I think the range is a little too wide for this player.

But whatever range we put him on it seems to me that seeing a turn and check raising blanks turns and possibly turning our hand into a bluff on the river if the turn goes x/x seems like a good plan for our range.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 3 months ago
I think this range may be a bit better. Let me know what you think.

New range: http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%2C+AccQT%2C+J9%3AAcc%2C+KQT%3Acc%29%3A30%25%402%2C+%2844%2C+AccJ%2C+Ac98c7%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Axx%2C+T87%3Acc%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic
Phil Galfond 12 years, 2 months ago
I think this turn spot is very tough. I agree with everyone that we need to call the flop raise, but like you said, I don't think he's messing around on a board this draw heavy with the shorter stack in the pot.

I really don't hate folding the turn.

A common theme I see lately in this forum is people misapplying "top of your range" as a justification for making plays. 99 is not exactly the top of your range (in playability and equity vs the range we put him on). We block J9, the main "value" hand we beat. 44xx isn't often played preflop, so we usually are looking at top set or a massive draw, and even many of these big draws don't raise the flop. Even KQJ9 plays a decent amount better in this situation than 99, not to mention other made hand + draws and huge draws.

It's (sort of) important to protect yourself against being exploited by defending with the top of your range, however-

1) We think his pure bluff frequency is near 0, given the short stack in the pot on the flop (so he can only "exploit" us by pushing hard with strong, but not premium draws.
2) We are in an unusual spot in a 6m game, where we have no good reason to think that this player has strong enough reads to attempt to exploit us like this.

Lenny Seward 12 years, 2 months ago
Phil, once we call flop and the turn bricks, aren't we kind of obligated to at least call? Any draws he raised OTF will barrel a brick turn with no SD value. If he bet 80% pot OTT, the SPR is 1.55 so he's never B/F any of his big draws. We would need 37.8% to get it in and we have that vs. this range (see below). If you, or anyone else, think the range is inaccurate please let me know. Like you said, I don't think folding the turn is bad at all, but given that the turn doesn't really narrow his flop raising range down at all I think we can shove. I like shoving better because there are more bad rivers than good (Clubs, K, Q, T, 7 vs. A, 6, 5, 2; J, 4 and 3 are okay, but hard to play if he shoves). Even if he's three times as likely to be shoving the included hands we still have enough equity to call an 80% PSB and decide OTR with $421.22 effective stacks and a pot of $546.

JJ... 2x as likely- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%2C+AccQT%2C+J9%3AAcc%2C+KQT%3Acc%29%3A30%25%402%2C+%2844%2C+AccJ%2C+Ac98c7%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Axx%2C+T87%3Acc%2C+J9%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic

JJ... 3x as likely- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%2C+AccQT%2C+J9%3AAcc%2C+KQT%3Acc%29%3A30%25%403%2C+%2844%2C+AccJ%2C+Ac98c7%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Axx%2C+T87%3Acc%2C+J9%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic
RiverOfTears 12 years, 2 months ago
Lenny, I think your ranges are a little bit too optimistic. This is a 3 way pot and he has a shortstack behind him. As Phil pointed out he is not raising 13w wraps in this spot. Also our hand plays really bad on the river (unless we turn into a bluff) oop, so it will be very hard for us to realize our eq by calling again on the turn. We basically have to make a decision now if we have sufficient eq vs his realistic range and I think his range is so dominated by JJ that we only have about 25% on the turn.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 2 months ago
His raise indicates he has a hand that is fine with getting AI OTF. That includes his huge draws. I took out hands in the 2x/3x as likely part that don't have SD value and added more that did. I also took out T98:cc and made 44:RROO:xx (I thought 44:RR meant a double paired hand, but I was wrong). I agree with Phil Long that you are weighting JJ too much, unfortunately you can't have JJ... be 2.5x as likely, but even with 3x as likely in this new range you have enough equity to call, but since rivers play so bad I'd just shove like I said earlier.

JJ... 2x as likely- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%2C+J9%3A%28Ac-Kc%29%3Ac%2C+J4%3AAcc%2C+AcJ%3A%24B%24B%3Acc%21RR%29%3A30%25%402%2C+%28AccQT%2C+KQT%3Acc%2C+44%3ARROO%3Axx%2C+Acc%3AJ%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Acc%2C+J9%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic

JJ... 3x as likely- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%2C+J9%3A%28Ac-Kc%29%3Ac%2C+J4%3AAcc%2C+AcJ%3A%24B%24B%3Acc%21RR%29%3A30%25%403%2C+%28AccQT%2C+KQT%3Acc%2C+44%3ARROO%2C+Acc%3AJ%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Acc%2C+J9%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic
Lenny Seward 12 years, 2 months ago
If you widen his range to top 35% of hands you have over the 37.8% required to get it in. What is his VPIP in the BB normally and VPIP with a raise and call in front of him? Raising the 30% to 35% is definitely not a huge stretch given that he is closing the action and has good relative position given that he gets to see what we do after the short stack acts.

JJ... 2x as likely:35%- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%2C+J9%3A%28Ac-Kc%29%3Ac%2C+J4%3AAcc%2C+AcJ%3A%24B%24B%3Acc%21RR%29%3A35%25%402%2C+%28AccQT%2C+KQT%3Acc%2C+44%3ARROO%3Axx%2C+Acc%3AJ%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Acc%2C+J9%29%3A35%25%401&s=generic
Lenny Seward 12 years, 2 months ago
Another thing is after running some counts, we do block a lot of J9's, but there are still nearly just as many J9 hands as there are JJ hands in the top 30%. You also have to discount some JJ because hands like JJ32:xx are in the top 30% of hands, but are't very likely.

Count- http://propokertools.com/simulations/count?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=J9%3A30%25&h3=%28JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Axxyy%29%3A30%25&s=generic
Lenny Seward 12 years, 2 months ago
After eliminating some of the JJ** combos that are technically in the top 35/30% of hands I definitely think this is a shove!

JJ... 2x as likely:30%- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Axxyy%2C+J9%3A%28Ac-Kc%29%3Ac%2C+J4%3AAcc%29%3A30%25%402%2C+%28AcJ%3A%24B%24B%24B%24B%3Acc%21RR%2C+AccQT%2C+KQT%3Acc%2C+44%3ARROO%3Axx%2C+Acc%3AJ%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Acc%2C+J9%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic

JJ... 3x as likely:30%- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Axxyy%2C+J9%3A%28Ac-Kc%29%3Ac%2C+J4%3AAcc%29%3A30%25%403%2C+%28AcJ%3A%24B%24B%24B%24B%3Acc%21RR%2C+AccQT%2C+KQT%3Acc%2C+44%3ARROO%3Axx%2C+Acc%3AJ%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Acc%2C+J9%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic
phil long 12 years, 2 months ago
Think Lennys range isnt perfect but Mortens weighting JJ too much. His range isnt anything like dominated by JJ, its just that when he has JJ you have 1 out, when he has other hands they still have good equity. Im not going to try and sim the perfect range but i think people have neglected KKx plus fd, and QQx +fd along with some other hands. Either way seems really close between jam and fold.
RiverOfTears 12 years, 2 months ago
Just want to add that 99 is one of those hands that is super dependant one the range it is up against. In a 3bet against with loose stack off ranges it is at the very top of ranges only surpassed by JJ. But semideep against a very tight range it goes down in value a lot. Whereas a hand like KQT8 does pretty similar no matter what it is up against.
RiverOfTears 12 years, 2 months ago
Nice work, Lenny. I agree that you can widen his preflop range a bit completing from the big blind. However, if we want to go crazy narrowing down his range we should also subtract his squeezing range and as I said he is quite the 3bet monkey. This elimantes all his ABBB with suited aces while not eliminating many JJ. I think he setmines from BB with all his JJ so we may even have to add some :)
Lenny Seward 12 years, 2 months ago
Won't he tighten his 3Bet range some because of the short stack? He wouldn't 3Bet his ABBZ and that still leaves him with possible AKQ, AKT, AQT type hands that would have a suited ace. Also, if he is set mining wide in the BB then that should boost his 44:RROO count some. He might flat an ABBB:xx too because he doesn't want to get 4Bet. I don't know. I'd have to have access to all his stats. This spot is incredibly close and given all the info I'd shove although a fold is good to.
Lenny Seward 12 years, 2 months ago
This adds ~100 JJ combos and reduces the likelihood of J9:(Ac-Kc)c and J4:Acc. It is STILL enough to get it in.

New Range- http://propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=Jc+4c+9s+3d&g=oh&h1=9d+8d+9c+8h&h2=%28JJ%21%282-6%29%21RROO%2C+JJ%3ARROO%2C+JJ%3Axxyy%2C+44%3ARROO%3Axx%29%403%2C+%28J9%3A%28Ac-Kc%29%3Ac%2C+J4%3AAcc%29%3A30%25%402%2C+%28AcJ%3A%24B%24B%24B%24Z%3Acc%21RR%2C+AccQT%2C+KQT%3Acc%2C+Acc%3AJ%2C+QTJ9%3Axx%2C+QT8%3Acc%2C+J9%3Axx%29%3A30%25%401&s=generic

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