lousy river

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Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

lousy river

BN: 289.65
SB: 133 (Hero)
BB: 100
HJ: 100
CO: 523
villain is a 28/19/7 winning reg, albeit a little bit of a nit postflop (only 42W$WSF). I have no idea what he's limping the BTN with, but is obviously heavily weighted towards some trash. BB is a somewhat laggier player preflop (albeit pretty mediocre) so maybe he just didn't want to get 3bet.
Preflop (1.50) (5 Players)
Hero was dealt A 5 K A
HJ folds, CO folds, BN calls 1, Hero raises to 4, BB folds, BN calls 3
standard
Flop (9.50) Q 8 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN checks
I checked the flop because betting and getting raised is not ideal. I can certainly profitably get it in on the flop against his range, but I like having some deception in my x/c range. So much of my pf raising range is going to be in bad shape on this flop that it seems good to add some strength to my x/c range.

Should I be betting the flop? Is a x/r better than my planned x/c?
Turn (9.50) A (2 Players)
Hero bets 8, BN calls 8
I don't see any reason to try and x/r the turn as we both know that this card obviously massively improves my range and I just want to get value and charge his draws. After checking the flop should I ever be going for the turn x/r?
River (25.50) J (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets 15, Hero folds
river has to be the worst card in the deck. It completes the bd flush which is obviously more likely based on his turn peel. It completes both straight draws (T9 and KJ). I think villain is probably good enough to vbet KJ (especially if he has a club blocker to lower my frequency of flushes) when checked to, but I'm not sure if he would bet T9. I'm not sure that he really has any blocker bluffs either as pretty much anything that peeled the turn had to either have some mediocre SD value (which he's probably going to take in this spot) or a draw.

the only stuff I felt like I was ahead of was something like AKc8X type hands that would peel the turn with two pair and then bluff the river with a blocker.

am I high enough in my range I should be x/c'ing the river? how do I get a handle on various villains bluffing frequencies in these spot without just bluff catching all of the time (encouraging them to not bluff and then change their frequencies)?

thanks!
Final Pot
BN wins 38.75

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