This is not intended as a hand history. This is the first hand in a $1 PLO HU sit and go on 888/Pacific. I am planning to go through every hand in the sit and go and make decisions about what I should or should not have done at the time.

I have great difficulty figuring out if I'm right or wrong or more accurately, when I am right or wrong. I also have great difficulty figuring out if I am running bad or playing bad. So I'm going to go through these and try to understand every point along the way.

I would like criticism of my after-the-fact thinking here. The stats below are taken from HM2 and are for the entire sng. I would not actually have know these things about the player on hand #1.

a 42 88 52 33.3 22
z 42 48 17 18.2 100

888poker Hand History for Game 927392032
$10/$20 Blinds Pot Limit Omaha - * 23 07 2017 14:10:41
Tournament #106737628 $0.92 + $0.08 - Table #1 2 Max (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 2
Seat 4: a ( $940 )
Seat 9: z ( $1,060 )
a posts small blind [$10]
z posts big blind [$20]
* Dealing down cards *
Dealt to z [ 7d, Tc, 5h, 3h ]
a raises [$40]
z folds
* Summary *
a did not show his hand
a collected [ $40 ]

My thinking:

A raises the button to 50 at blind level 10/20. So raises to 2.5 BB

Z folds 7dTc5h3h

Minimum defense frequency (MDF) describes the portion of your range that you must continue with when facing a bet in order to remain unexploitable by bluffs.

MDF = pot size/(pot size+ bet size)

Z should be defending with 37.5% of hands. (30/(30+50)*100)

ProPoker tools ranks this hand (7dTc5h3h) as 85% vs a random hand. AAJT is ranked 1.13 % so the 85% must mean it's bad - way down the list.

Based on that this is correctly a fold.

Propoker tools has this hand vs a 52% pre flop raising range as having 40.40% equity. Against that range this should be a defend.