LIVE POKER - 5/5 PLO AA w/ NFD facing turn bet in 3bet Pot
Posted by Chris Bowling
Posted by
Chris Bowling
posted in
Mid Stakes
LIVE POKER - 5/5 PLO AA w/ NFD facing turn bet in 3bet Pot
5/5 PLO
Lo-Jack - Regular - $3k *Pretty solid regular. Better than most live regs. Playing pretty tight preflop. Thinking about ranges and playing good aggressive
HJ - Hero - $1.5k - Ad As 6d 6s
Preflop:
Btn straddle, 3 limps, LJ raises to $60. Hero re-raises to $220, LJ calls.
Flop($480): Kd 3c 9h
LJ checks, Hero checks
Turn: Qd
LJ bets $325, Hero??? So
Preflop standard I think. On the flop with an SPR of around 3, I elect to check back. I feel like with 2 bdfd's, I would maybe just pot/gii. Probably be close, but with just 1, I want to check back. I think villain's range is really strong for potting to $60 from the LJ. I see him in his raising strategy preflop having 2 sizes, 1 smaller raise size and 1 potting preflop size. So I think on this board, he has a lot of hands like KKxx, KQJTss or KQJTds, KQ98ds, ect...So I check back.
On the turn, you guys might find it silly I am considering anything but calling, but vs JT or KK here, I have around 19% vs JT and KK. That means doing the math, I need to win around .98 pot size bets on the river to break even. But after I call the turn, I think a lot of villains will put me on AA w/ diamonds. I think the perception is that KK would bet the flop a lot. AAJT from me would probably be just betting flop. So I am pretty pessimistic that he would be c/c'ing basically at least half pot on the river often enough to where I make money in the long run. Plus, if the river is a 3d or 9d, I have very bad visibility and could still be beat or it would be very difficult to give value from worse on that card. It is possible a 3 could come and it goes check/check and I win, but that's assuming that if I have the best hand on a 3, that he doesn't bluff river and push me off the best hand. What do guys think?
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Good line so far and good reasoning.
My rough math is saying we need to make about $600 on river when we improve if we know he has JT or KK, but I think you might be underestimating how often he has 2 pair or perhaps even the worst hand.
He won't have a ton of bluffs, I know, but you've got a lot more equity against 2pr than you do against JT/KK.
I still think this is a very close decision when you give him a strong range, but looking at it from a different perspective: If you fold this hand, how often are you folding the turn?
I'd say well over 50%, which means he should make this bet with all of his air. If he's a reasonably good player, that's enough reason to call, I think. Good luck!
Is it that bad to bet fold on the flop with a 1/2 sizing vs a ''good'' range, or you think he will just x/r with ''alot'' and make you fold out EQ?
I just think that he might decide to call sometimes with 9+gutter/K+gutter and some strange combos of like JJT8/QQT8 perhaps? My argument is following IF he assumes you only have AA here like 90% AND can fold to a x/r he should ALWAYS jam on your c-bet. Therefore you check-back.
BUT if not, I think you can bet here about 1/2 and have SPR 1.25 OTT. Lastly, this part is never discussed in but as it is LIVE, I strongly believe you might get something out of looking at him before he checks to you. Did he double-check his cards/you got any feeling about him? I know this is fishy for online-players but in close spots where u can gain additional EV this is a good one after all Live is made for this and I do believe this is the place.
So I just disagreed with phil about something(maybe the 1st :)) but I think people talk so in depth about perfect strategy that they forget to look at a guy from time to time and maybe find something there? Or you did and I am just argumenting for the sake of it? ;)
The main reason to check back here is that the hands we protect against - the hands he folds - have very low equity against us.
A range that calls us will probably be close to flipping (and we're behind his entire continuing range), so we aren't getting value, and when we shove and get blown off our equity it's very unfortunate.
So, it's not a value bet and it's not a bluff and it's not giving us much protection. This is what I'd call a "make the hand easier to play bet," which is simple to execute but costs us money.
Agreed that there's more to think about live!
Thank you for making it more clear why you should x-back in this spot.
I hoped the poster could make a comment about if he had a ''feel'' for the spot in some way as his analysis was very clear and strategic.
And the more I play live, the more I think we can put those type of ''emotional/tell'' applications to a hand analysis. And for some reason I see it rare if ever at a live comment post.
I think Phil’s reasoning is perfect here.
I am just wondering, why with SPR under 3, you dont want to just shove and get it in. Yes I understand Phil reasoning. But we could assume he might fold some weak KK preflop ( or shove some very strong KK preflop ) so we can discount few combos of KK. Yes he will have some K9. But he will also have hands like AKQJ ( Yes i know that we block those hands ) and we are doing a little bit better than flipping. Also hands like JT98, 987 etc.. And we dont mind denying equity to these hands. Overall I think in tight preflop range should be more Pair + gutshot type of hands or AKQ than two pairs that contain K9, K3 or 93.
I think if we x back flop to realize equity and keep worse hands with low eq in, then this card is one of the best turns( other than A) for us. The straight is bad but it also opens doors for villain semibluffs, so we should almost always continue against a good player or maniac or even others (with lower frequency ) and think about bluffing some rvrs like J or T with AA blockers and making some light calls once in a while.
Sometimes we make a situation happen in a hand and once it does we start getting afraid of the monsters in the dark
good luck
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