Live PLO is so slow!
Posted by nutinsider
Posted by
nutinsider
posted in
Mid Stakes
Live PLO is so slow!
How many hours would you need to have a comfortable sample size playing live PLO?
Assume most all ins are ran twice. 3000 hours?
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Bump.
I think you'll have a good idea how well you're doing in the games much earlier than that. Evaluating where you stand against the player pool on a qualitative basis is likely to better (i.e. observing whether people are making obvious mistakes, etc). From the live PLO I have played you are going to have a much bigger edge playing live than the same games online, in which case a larger winrate should be possible which will reduce your variance.
The fact that a 3000 hour sample is most likely going to take 3 years means that it is going to be of little (if any) practical value. Your game will evolve as will the games of your opponents, and (hopefully) you will have improved significantly over that time.
+1 to what joniko said, you're not going to get enough hands in under consistent table conditions to be able to say much with certainty statistically. I actually think it's appropriate that you used the word "comfortable" sample size -- comfort is something you're unlikely to experience much of at live PLO, as the variance is so high! However, you'll see many obvious mistakes, such as people playing very weak hands in early position, going broke with dry top and bottom in a multi-way single-raised pot, etc. In my experience, in live PLO games up to 5/10, many players limp the majority of their dealt hands from all positions. Anyone with any pride in their game should expect to win under these conditions. How much variance you're willing to stomach is up to you.
Yea, its kinda funny. Ive noticed in casinos, a 5 bring in game plays much deeper than a home game with the same bring. Home game PLO much more getting money in preflop and shallower stacks...casino PLO is deeper and more post flop play.
It does seem pretty accurate that a 50-100k roll is about spot on for Live full ring PLO, 5 bring in, straddles, and avg stack around 1kish.
Or, more seriously put, shouldn't our achievable winrate be so large that 50k is very conservative (not to mention that super deep games versus villains I assume are passive will be lower variance than online 100bb games)?
On the conservative side, but not crazy. I play in a 1/2/5 home game (the 5 is a mandatory button straddle) that's very soft, but sometimes the game plays very big and I've seen people win/lose 15k in a session. It's not so hard to run very badly for awhile.
Hey Tom. If you want to message me I can give you some pretty in depth numbers I have over my observable sample...but just to be brief and explain the parameters of the omaha I play.....
1)Relatively shallow stacks...Avg 1k.
2)Round n round (omaha and hold em)
3)Lots of speculation preflop leaving most play after flop ship or crai...not tons of betting on later streets.4
4)25 cap straddle most people straddle for 10-15...bringing the effective bring in...10-15.
5)My biggest draw down is about 15k or so.
Also remember that live pots tend to go multi-way far more often than online. If a few people limp, someone raises to 30, and 5 players call (which would be typical pre-flop action) you've got a $180 pot going to the flop. They're not afraid to cold call 3bets, either.
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