Live 5/5/10 -- Turning Top set into Bluff (and then hero calling river??)
Posted by King Kong
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King Kong
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High Stakes
Live 5/5/10 -- Turning Top set into Bluff (and then hero calling river??)
I am a young white kid. I almost never play PLO and have not played with anyone at the table before.
Villain is a asian regular in his 40s who sometimes plays higher stakes and seems competent and intelligent. He was caught once bluffing 3 streets a few orbits ago.
Villain has 1700, I cover. It seems to me that all streets are debatable.
Pre: 3 limpers, I raise to 55 otb w Kh Qc Qd 6d. Villain in BB calls and all limpers call.
Flop (290): Qh 9c 7c. Villain leads 275, 3 folds, I call.
Turn (840): Kc. Villain checks fairly quickly, I think for a minute and bet 500. He calls after 1.5-2 min.
River (1840): Ac, Villain lead shoves all in for ~900 after thinking for 20 seconds.
On the flop I don't feel like I have a significant equity advantage w dry top set so I choose to flat and play the turn in position.
When the Kc comes, my plan was to bet turn and shove all rivers to get villain to fold straights and smaller flushes. I think sometimes he x/f the turn w JTxx and sometimes he x/c one street, x/f the river. I also think he never x/shoves the turn w/o the A-hi flush. I can also get value from sets on the turn by betting.
On the river, I get very confused because I have the nut flush blocker and he lead shoves into me. I think he's bluffing but I think some of his bluffs might beat me...
What do you guys think? I'd love to get better at PLO!
Loading 8 Comments...
raise flop, check back turn, fold rive
Yeah, checking back turn and folding non-boating rivers is the other standard option...
what hands you think he is bluffing with? what is he trying to fold out given odds?
I don't think I'm ahead enough to call. But I think sometimes he has JT and is trying to bluff me off of a chop. Other times, he might be turning a set into a bluff?
I'm most interested in the turn action and whether you think betting turn make sense.
I think the river is a super bizarre spot, and I don't have much advice on it. He probably has the 2nd nuts and just got more confident in it, I guess?
The turn bet is questionable. He's very likely got you beat and won't be folding to one bet, and this isn't a spot I love to fire twice against live guys. Now, if he's a very tough reg and you had a lot of aggro history, betting turn has the added benefit of inducing some river bluffs when you boat up. I doubt that was the case here.
(Edit: On 2nd thought, betting the turn and river as a bluff is a fine option. I like it against most players and the 2nd nut blocker is an excellent bluff card for you.)
Speaking of which, assuming he's relatively read-less on you, I think a lot of players that fit his profile are likely to lead a top two or bottom two + draw type hand and put too much emphasis on the AAxx portion of your PFR range.
I suspect when you raise they'll often thing you've got AA+nfd/AAJT/AAKT or that you're an idiot with dry AA or some kind of bluff. Because of that, I don't think he's ever going to fold any two pair hands, and you can get stacks in against them (with MASSIVE equity) before the board gets too scary to accomplish that.
Not to mention the fact that sometimes he just has a set and doesn't care what you have.
Not raising flop is the only spot that I think is a clear-cut EV mistake.
Very strange river spot and hard to give advice without more reads, but some food for thought: for some players most of their bluffs in a spot like this are nut blockers, so having the dry Qc in your hand doesn't necessarily make it more likely he's bluffing. It might actually make it a lot less likely.
raising flop is kinda standard, your hand is likely to be best but need some protection against draws. your turn bet doesn't accomplish much, flushs are never folding and a free river card that may pair the board will give you probably the nuts. the fourth club on the board may give him a little less credit for having the flush, since you block one more possible combo with Qc but I don't think it is enough to call the river shove. raise/check/fold for me.
A Q97ss board is different from a 742ss board in that we're up against bare made hands a lot more. So the fact that the board is so co-ordinated is a reason to raise now - our hand isn't quite as disguised as we'd like it to be, as we have the top of a made-hand-calling range that does tend to pot-control on drawy boards, and hands that would pay us off on the turn when we boat up are hands that are likely to put good $ into the pot here and now. A flush or straight-completing card on the turn allows bare Q9 or 99 to c/f; also, hands like top two or a set with a singular draw, against which we're in good shape, will stack off now, or make us pay to draw to boat up on the turn, where the equity we make by forcing them to stack off on turn blanks (not that common) doesn't make up for the lost value here. Lastly, villain is more likely to have a made hand than a draw when he leads into the field, and when he does have a draw we can potentially make him fold multiway but non-nutty draws that are in good shape against this hand but in bad shape against our range.
Turn is a check. We simply can't get enough hands to fold, we're blocking some of our equity when called and we're not pricing villain in to call with his sets when he thinks we're on a flush or straight.
River is always a fold even if we're surprised to be facing a jam.
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