Live $25/50 PLO, stack off on the flop?
Posted by nma
Posted by
nma
posted in
High Stakes
Live $25/50 PLO, stack off on the flop?
UTG: $10k (reg)
UTG+1: $12k (reg)
HJ: $6k (Huge whale)
SB: $7.5k (Hero)
Live 25/50 game. Game is very good at the moment with a huge whale who is involved in almost every pot.
Herois in SB with AAQQsscc (7.5k)
Utg reg opens (10k) another reg calls
ep1 (12k) and whale calls from HJ (6k). I 3b pot to 1050$. Everyone
calls.Flop: Kc9s3d ($4250)I
have spr 1.5, and double bdfd. Pot get it in? Or perhaps bet small
and fold to shove? I think since because this is a live game their
ranges may be incorrectly skewed towards more KKxx type hands that may
be a fold preflop due to the 3b but the bad regs/fish will call anyways to
set mine with bad odds. At the same time we want to realize our equity
and try to turn one of our flush draws sets etc.
Check
evaluate? We are OOP vs 3 opponents. If we had a gutter instead of a
set draw I think this would be a snap get it in (AAJQ/JT). We have a pretty favorable flop for our hand if no one has a set, we are doing decently against one pairs and have ok equity v unlikely 2p combos, and in bad shape vs sets.
Risk/reward scenarios: we are risking 6.5k to win 4.25k, I think we win the pot about 30-40% of the time here, and when called HU our equity varies anywhere from 20 to 60%. Thoughts?
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bump....any opinions?
Worst case EV estimate with your assumptions:
- 30% fold equity
- 20% equity when called (let's assume it's always HU for simplicity)
EV (jam)
= 0.30*4250 + 0.70*(0.20*(4250 + 2*6500)-6500)
= -$860
That's not so bad for a worst case.
As you said, live people set-mine more than they should, so we've got worse equity when we do get it in. We can also generally rely on them to play relatively straightforwardly, betting or raising their sets when they don't have the last aggressor to act behind them. When we get our money in multiway, our equity is awful, so I like checking to see what the field does. If we're faced with one small bet, we can peel with a view to evaluating turns, likely checking most cards other than J/T of s/c. Having two queens in our hand also blocks some of the combo pair + gs or inside wrap hands we're in good shape against.
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