Live $25/50 PLO, stack off on the flop?
Posted by nma
Posted by nma posted in High Stakes
Live $25/50 PLO, stack off on the flop?
UTG: $10k (reg)
UTG+1: $12k (reg)
HJ: $6k (Huge whale)
SB: $7.5k (Hero)
Live 25/50 game. Game is very good at the moment with a huge whale who is involved in almost every pot.
Herois in SB with AAQQsscc (7.5k)
Utg reg opens (10k) another reg calls
ep1 (12k) and whale calls from HJ (6k). I 3b pot to 1050$. Everyone
calls.Flop: Kc9s3d ($4250)I
have spr 1.5, and double bdfd. Pot get it in? Or perhaps bet small
and fold to shove? I think since because this is a live game their
ranges may be incorrectly skewed towards more KKxx type hands that may
be a fold preflop due to the 3b but the bad regs/fish will call anyways to
set mine with bad odds. At the same time we want to realize our equity
and try to turn one of our flush draws sets etc.
Check
evaluate? We are OOP vs 3 opponents. If we had a gutter instead of a
set draw I think this would be a snap get it in (AAJQ/JT). We have a pretty favorable flop for our hand if no one has a set, we are doing decently against one pairs and have ok equity v unlikely 2p combos, and in bad shape vs sets.
Risk/reward scenarios: we are risking 6.5k to win 4.25k, I think we win the pot about 30-40% of the time here, and when called HU our equity varies anywhere from 20 to 60%. Thoughts?
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