Live Mid-Stakes spot turning trips into semibluff mw
Posted by nontoxic
Posted by
nontoxic
posted in
Mid Stakes
Live Mid-Stakes spot turning trips into semibluff mw
Button in this hand is unknown, but was just stacked in a pot that seemed reasonable.
SB is a taggish younger guy.
.straddled, limped pot, I check 9874s, eff stacks 435
(60) 763cc
X, x, x, x, x, x
(60) 763cc7
X, x, x, x, x, btn bets 35 (cover), call (400), I (435) xr to 110, call, fld
(315) 763cc7Kc
I pot.
I think calling is +eV, but suspected raising might be more +eV. So I took a look using this analysis...
-btn limps 90% of hands
-btn 90% pf range instead of 75%
-btn 100% of 2pr+ flop check range therefore uncapped turn betting range
-btn ships 76 and 73 on turn
-btn calls down with 66 and 33 and all rvr'd dh's
-btn calls all trips and always folds non-fh's to rvr shoves, bet size on rvr is 100
Btn’s range:
90%:(76, 73, 66, 33, 7[A-8][A-8][A-8]!oo!xxyy) 17923 (100%)
90%:(66, 33) 5113 (28.5%)
90%:(76, 73)!66!33 8960 (50.0%)
90%:(7[A-8][A-8][A-8]!oo!xxyy) 3850 (21.5%)
Raising:
eVraise= (fold)(pot) + (1-fold)[(btnshv-raise) + (btn_call_fold_rvr)(pot+raise) + (btncallcallrvr)*(-stack) + (btncallcallrvr)(my_fh_rvr)(pot+stack-raise)]
pot = 130
stack = 435
raise = 75
btnshv = .5
btncallfoldrvr = .21535/44
btn_call_call_rvr = .2159/44+.285
=(.1)(130) + (.9)[(.5)-110 + (.21535/44)(130+75) + ((.2159/44+.285)-435 + (.2159/44+.285)*(130+400)]
=23
Calling:
eVcall= (oppfhtrn)*[(-call*nofhrvr) + (pot+bet) * myfh] + (1-oppfhtrn) * [-bet * nosofhrvr + (pot)(1-no_sofh_rvr)]
=(.685)[(-35) * (35/44) + (130 + 100) * (6/44)] + (1-.685)*[(-35) * (33/44) + (130 + 100) * (11/44)]
=12.3
Therefore I think raising is better than calling. Am I missing some big picture stuff? Are there critical mistakes in the math? Anyone disagree strongly with my assumptions?
Loading 1 Comments...
I like your line, looks very boat heavy and since you have blockers you should get him off all straight and flushes. Could even make him fold some off the botm boats aswell, the only thing u can do different is the sizing UNLESS u usually play top off you range like this.
Villian is TAG so he wont randomcall you here betting 2/3 or 1/2 can make it look like a valuebet and save money when he has you beat and calls off regardless off sizing.
Be the first to add a comment