Line discussion OTT? Turned GS/NFD OOP

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Line discussion OTT? Turned GS/NFD OOP

I've been doing a lot of review on hands/vid notes etc. and it brought me to this one situation where I'm finding myself to be kind of lost, or at least feeling very imbalanced. I'd like to put my thought process under a microscope here and get some feedback. BTW, I'm really just interested in turn discussion here, more than anything else, though of course it is the flop play that leads to the turn play.

For ease of discussion let's just say it's 100 PLO. And villain's readless. 100bb eff.

Folded to me, I open for $3.50 in CO with AK57ss suited to the ace and 7. BTN calls. Rest fold. HU to flop.

$8.50 pot
Flop Q85r with one spade giving me bot pair and BDNFD. I bet $5.00, IP calls.

$18.50 pot
Turn Ts - board - Qc 8d 5s Ts

So this is basically a spot I tend to be check/calling here as a default and very rarely am I barreling turn.

  • I'm making an assumption that the T improves villain's range quite a bit and I'm pretty much betting while behind if I barrel turn
  • Betting and getting raised off my hand here is pretty crummy.
  • This make my check/calls pretty imbalanced as for the most part this is how I'd play all my NFD's here. Though I suppose I'd play sets like this, sometimes.
  • My check/call feels fairly face-up, IMO, and it makes me unsure if I'm just not playing this spot very well to begin with.

So to me I'm wondering if there's a mixture of an exploitable line/bad line, flawed thinking, and flawed poker. I wonder if part of the problem is that I am giving villain too much credit for improving his range with the turned T?

Would appreciate any feedback, thanks.

2 Comments

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MegaGrinder 6 years, 3 months ago

thanks for the hand! For sure you are not the only one suffering with the spot!

Basically you have 10 outs to nuts, but villain most likely block some of them. Especially if you are against straight, there is one out less. also two flush-outs will pair the board and that's tough spot again.

However K and A will give you two pairs which might be good.

How I see this spot is following:

For check call you are doing it for implied odds if the bet is reasonable big. You don't have the immediate odds against pot-sized bet as that would need 14 outs, while you have 9-10.. Your hand looks good but it is not strong enough to make money.

Against loose passive players I still like check-call, because implied odds are there. And they might also check back. By betting you will not benefit a lot becuse your fold equity isn't great. What would they fold now that they called on. flop?

Against tougher player we need more aggressive line here. Most regs don't expect you to check J9 there because fd came. So when you check they sense weakness. And therefore their betting range is most likely much wider than only nuts. Therefore personally I would often CR here. I might get some made hands to fold while I still have decent equity (25-35% when called). From 200 bb pot we will get 50-70 bb back (cost for us 20-40 bb) depending of their calling range. So villain needs to fold to CR roughly half of the time which is true I guess. Against some opponents it will not be true as many recreational players fold lot less than 50%.

Still at flop you can check-fold to avoid these spots. By choosing aggressive line your ev is dependent of your reads and you can make big mistakes there. Therefore it might be cheaper just check-fold the flop.

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