KK44ds vs 4bet - math

Posted by Suniram

Posted by Suniram posted in Low Stakes

Posted 11 years, 4 months ago

KK44ds vs 4bet - math

BB: $46 (Hero)
HJ: $20
CO: $35.38
BN: $49.40
SB: $33.88

Preflop ($0.35) (5 Players)

Hero was dealt 4 K K 4
HJ folds, CO raises to $0.85, BN folds, SB calls $0.75, Hero raises to $3.40, CO calls $2.55, SB raises to $13.60, Hero calls $10.20, CO calls $10.20

Today I played this hand and I thought it can't hurt to look a bit into the math behind that. CO being in the hand varies a bit from the standard 'openraise -> 3bet -> 4bet' spot but here he is always gonna call so it actually makes this way more of a call. For this example tho I just ignore him being in the pot to figure out if I could call if it was HU only.

EV(postflop) = Call% * (potsize after shove * avg EQ - flopshove)

OTF villain will shove 20,3 into 27,2 (discouting COs preflop-call) so we need 30% to call.
-> After we call pot will be = 13,6+13,6+20,3+20,3= 67,8
-> We have 30% on 38% of flops
-> I broke down the HvH graph (KsKh4s4h vs AA) in 4 segments and our avg. EQ when we call is ,70%

0,38 * (67,8 * ,70 - 20,3) = 10,32
-> The postflop EV for calling the 4bet is 10,32.

Since the 4bet is 10,20 more our call is pretty much breakeven (assuming villain autoshoves every flop and, as said, ignoring COs actions+contributions to potsize in this hand).

Is the math and logic behind this correct?

Thanks in advance!

6 Comments

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Tom Coldwell 11 years, 4 months ago

Analysing these as multi-way pots is kinda hard, but if we treat this as HU it's a comfortably profitable call. Given how uneven our equity distribution is with a hand like this (ie we have very few marginal calls), the third player should increase our expectation by either stacking off as a significant dog when we hit or simply folding and leaving us dead money.

I have to admit I'm not entirely sure you've done re: the math on this, but if you used the HvH function in PPT that was a mistake - you should use HvR as you don't know villain's exact hand. If you find this sort of work interesting and/or tricky, I made a video a few months back on exactly how to go about doing these calculations (Calling 4-Bets) which you may find useful.

Suniram 11 years, 4 months ago

Awesome. I haven't seen that one. Gonna do that asap: :)

Using the HvR option, our avg EQ decreases to ,58 which makes the postflop EV 7,22$ an therefore a fold preflop. Are we really folding this pretty hand vs a 4bet? :(

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 4 months ago

When I did the calc, my average equity was 71% on the 47% of flops I was stacking off. I will confidently state that double-suited, double-paired, KK44 is not a fold to a 4-bet here. Redo the calcs after the vid and see what you get - if it's still negative let me know and I'll see if we can't figure out where our numbers differ.