KK+2fds mid 4w facing pot bet on str8 compl turn
Posted by spassewr
Posted by
spassewr
posted in
Mid Stakes
KK+2fds mid 4w facing pot bet on str8 compl turn
sb is a fish, donks often, no reads on sizing or hands just that he has a high donk % (only 60 hands tho).
co is a LAG, flast co 20ish %, 3bets a ton ip and high fold to cb
btn is a 28/18, hardly squeezes at all, flats about 20% otb with avg fold to cbets
i realize this isnt a cb otf of course, but just as a guidance about their fold to flop bets.
i think no1 credits the half pot donk really, but they still have something ofc.
ott, the sb has 60 behind after potting, we are 717 effective with the 2 guys behind.
jam/call/fold??
Loading 4 Comments...
I think u have read to decide that KKxxds aren't good enough to squeeze preflop...
OTF being so deep puts u in a marginal spot postflop where u can still raise to iso the fish (and it's a good result when u can play in hu vs him) or flat and see what happens. If u decide to raise and one of the others goes over the top... well, maybe u will have to fold 200x. So both lines have pros and cons.
OTT u have too much equity in hu vs SB to fold, the pot is big and he's out of money, so raise now and force the other guys to fold anything but the nuts ofc. In the worst case, u still have a big double fd.
i think shoving ott seems fine. largely because i don't want to fold and i dislike the situations you get into on rivers if you flat and someone calls behind.
ok thx guys.
ran some numbers, since its 4way its probably too messy for me to post the PokerJuice screenshot to see their range distributions.
it looks like the guys behind me will have a str8 a combined 40% of the time. the good news is that they will only have nuts+nfd 6% of the time. vs the avg 76 we have 38%.
gave donker this: P:80%
F: (9,5,2):63+,43+,dd - 95+
T: 76,85+,ddcc,dd:56+,cc:65+
CO this: P: $fi40 - $3b15i
F: (9,5,2):63+,43+,dd - add:43+,95+
BTN this: P: $fi20 - $3b4i
F: same as CO
may have given the donker too wide of a range. vs his turn range we have 56%
assuming that they dont fold nuts no redraw, this means that 40% of the time we will gii w/ 34% eq in the main pot, and about 38% eq in the sidepot.
any1 good at math that can figure out if this is +EV to gii?
does adi1 & roubo still wanna gii just glancing at this?
Randomly came across this thread. This is a tricky spot need to think about it more when I'm not so tired.
Be the first to add a comment