The flop is pretty dry and the size he bets otf is either AA or top pair. I think folding otf is possible since he will have J's fairly often

standard nh. fold flop would be a big mistake

Preflop looks fine to me, not much we can say without any info on villain.

Then I'm confused, looks like a snap fold on the flop to me!

When posting or responding to posts, it would be useful if people would include the ranges that they put the opponents on.  In a spot like this, the range we give the opponent is really all it comes down to.  Once we have that, the rest is trivial.

So here's what I personally think an unknown opponent might be getting it in with in this spot:

http://www.propokertools.com/simulations/show?b=7h2dJc&g=oh&h1=9hKc7cQh&h2=%28%2877%2C22%2CJJ%29%2C%28%2872%2C7J%2C2J%29%21%2877%2C22%2CJJ%29%29%2C%28%28J%29%21%2877%2C22%2CJJ%2C72%2C7J%2C2J%29%29%2CT98%2C%28%28%2898%2CT8%2CT9%29%3A%287%2C2%2CJ%29%29%21%2877%2C22%2CJJ%2C72%2C7J%2C2J%29%29%2C%28QQ%2B%21RRR%29%29%3A10%25&s=generic

Given this range, it's pretty close between shoving and folding.  It looks slightly profitable to get it in, but the error in calculation will probably be bigger than the actual profit (or loss).  I don't see how it can be a big mistake to either shove or fold here.

I think this is just one of those common spots in PLO where both players are kinda locked in to their hand on this flop, and the money needs to go in.  (but folding probably has roughly the same result with lower variance, so it can't be bad in isolation)

Thanks all, sweden - 12 points...

These hands are the hardest to play, my intuition told me that I needed to shove but on the other hand "I feel so wrong doing the right thing" as sing 1 republic in Counting stars...

Dont know whether stars relate to stars in Pokerstars vip status or stars from hit in the head after lost hand.....

But, this is ftp - so everything's clear...

;)

An interesting alternative when stacks are deeper is to call and call off the rest on sufficiently good turns. If we don't have fold equity and Villain is always committed when he pots flop, this line must be better, if we play turns well. 

There's a very interesting hand in Oddsen's 2nd video (http://www.runitonce.com/plo/oddsen2/, starting at 15:00) where he takes that line with bottom two pair versus Luckygump's pot flop + pot turn strategy.

Oddsen's logic here is that when Villain is 100% committed and we know the turn shove is coming, we can improve our EV by not always being committed, even if we could stack off with marginal +EV on the flop.

Folding the worst turn cards is then equivalent to pruning some of the worst branches off the game tree and stacking off with better average equity on the remaining ones. Villain's commitedness ensures we always get it in good when we want to, so our best hands never lose anyting.

We'll explore that line for our scenario in the hypothetical full-stacked case. First the actual case:

EV of stacking off (with given stacks)

We'll make it simple and assume he pots flop with the range Jonna assigned him above, and that he doesn't have a b/f range. Our equity is 37.10% with $47 in the pot and $59 behind. Calculating EV as the stack at the end of the hand, we get:

EV (shove) = 0.371($47 + $59 + $59) = $61

EV (fold) = $59

So shoving is slightly +EV (+$2) in the actual hand. Now let's change stacks to 100 bb and continue to shove:

EV of stacking off (100 bb stacks)

We would have $178 behind, and shoving would result in:

EV (shove) = 0.371($47 + $178 + $178) = $150
EV (fold) = $178

Shoving now loses $28 relative to folding, and folding is the superior option of the two. Now the interesting question is: How much can we improve on this by calling flop and stacking off on the best turns?

EV of calling flops and stacking off on good turns (100 bb stacks)

We are assuming Villain always has the range assigned to him previously and that he stacks off on every turn. The pot on the turn will be $47 + $45 + $45 = $137 with $133 behind. We then get pot odds (137 + 133) : 133 = 2.03 : 1 and need 1/(2.03 + 1) = 33% to stack off. 

We ask Odds Oracle to estimate how often we'll have 33+% and what our average equity is when we do:

- We have 33+% equity on 59.30% of turns

- Our average equity on these turns is 50.58%

We fold turn 40.70 % and end the hand with $133. The remaining 59.30% we stack off with 50.58% equity in a $200 + $200 + $1 = $401 pot. The expected final stack size is then:

EV (call flop, cherry-pick turns)
= 0.407*$133 + 0.593*0.5058*$401
= $54.13 + $120.28
= $174

EV (fold) = $178

So while we clearly can't stack off on the flop, calling and playing turns accurately increases our EV to a slightly losing play (-$4). The Odds Oracle estimations have numerical errors, so we should be cautious about drawing strong conclusions, but it's clearly not super-bad.

With a slightly better hand and/or a slightly worse opponent stack-off range, calling the flop and playing turns accurately will be a +EV line to take. And it's always better than raising flop, given our assumptions (when we have an accurate range estimate for a committed opponent).