What to do part 1
Posted by outragezfortunes
Posted by
outragezfortunes
posted in
Low Stakes
What to do part 1
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $26.83 (134.1 bb)
Hero (BB): $20 (100 bb)
UTG: $12.17 (60.9 bb)
MP: $20 (100 bb)
CO: $20 (100 bb)
BTN: $35.96 (179.8 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BB with Ah 9h Kh Kd
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.70, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.20, BTN calls $1.50
Flop: ($4.50) 3h 8s 2h (2 players)
Hero bets $3.40, BTN calls $3.40
Turn: ($11.30) 4c (2 players)
Villain is unknown
So what am I doing here? I assume the flop is good - or is a check raise a better option? What do we do on the turn? If we bet and we are raised I assume its a fold? If we get called and the river blanks again (for us I mean what do we do? just general ideas on how to play this post flop through all streets would be great. A similar but slightly different hand to follow.
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Flop- this is generally a great flop for our hand (Not only do we have great equity vs the majority of villains range, but most of that range misses this flop and allows us to pick up the pot with a c-bet). I agree with your sizing of your bet as it charges almost the max for any draw to continue, and discourages light floats. Now, we can somewhat begin to mold a narrower range (sets are less likely, two-pair plus draws are usually raising this flop, total air is also much less likely). So that leaves his range comprised mostly of marginal hands/draws
Turn- these are one of those boards that are drastically easier to play in position, unfortunately you don't have that luxury. So all 56xx and A5 combo's hit this card, and the major question is what % of his range consists of these combo's? The short answer is we do not have sufficient data( against a theoretically unknown villain he could be sitting there with the nuts, air, or somewhere in between) to make a reasonable assumption. Imo at this point it is very, very important to remember that the decision you make cannot be considered "good" or "bad". For example(and this is only 1 of the possible scenarios), if you bet 1/2 pot here and he folds, although you are happy to pick up the pot, what if he floats flops light looking to b/f the turn?(which is a viable strategy vs your high card heavy range on this flop) In that case a c/r would be optimal. The point I am trying to make is until you actually see villain showdown some hands or gather reads on some of his tendencies, you can either take a conservative or aggressive approach to finding out how villain plays. Being OOP and with a bloated pot and unsure of an unknown villains range, taking a standard B/F line is never a terrible line and probably close to optimal (with the use of good sizing).
As for your not so simple question, ["If we get called and the river blanks again (for us I mean what do we do?"] the simple answer is you will have to determine based off the action in the hand if you are ahead or behind villains range act accordingly(It's a push or c/f scenario imo). Whatever you choose, only after playing thousands of hands with this same villain will you really know if your decision was correct. Sorry for the long post.
SUMMARY: b/f 1/2 pot
Vs a check, I'd expect him to bet this turn obviously with his straights, and sometimes 2pr's, but also his KQT8's, his worse FD's, his QJ54's, etc etc, that most likely just fold if you lead the turn(or shove over your small turn bet since he's getting a sick price and you A5/56 freq is pretty low). So, with your guaranteed ~18% equity, plus your equity advantage the times he jams his semibluffs, you've got more than enough equity to get the money in vs a turn bet.
Also, check/folding a hand this high up in our range here seems pretty terrible from a GTO standpoint. You're just getting raped on this card.
Also if turn goes check/check, that's great for you. You get to realize your equity, and potentially show your hand down or make some decisions on rivers.
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