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Idiot straight, question on turn

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

Idiot straight, question on turn

BN: $17.35
SB: $13.45
BB: $10
CO: $31.90 (Hero)
This is villain's first hand at table. The exact hand before, while he was waiting for the blind, he probably saw me lose 125bb in a hand when I turned AA7x into basically a bluff catcher otb against slowplayed flopped top trips. There's been a lot of limp calling, and some very passive preflop play, as you'll have in these games. No reads on villain in particular as I have no hands on him.
Preflop ($0.15) (4 Players)
Hero was dealt 9 T 8 J
Hero raises to $0.30, BN calls $0.30, SB folds, BB calls $0.20
Single suited rundown, not much to say. I'll open it in fair relative position and won't be worried if I'm called multiway or really even if I'm 3bet, which will almost always be AA. (Almost.)
Flop ($0.95) 2 Q K (3 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.95, BN folds, BB calls $0.95
Flop an idiot wrap without the flush draw, but I think it's worth a cbet, and I get heads up in position against a likely draw. I'd say about half the people in these games will x/c flopped trips here oop. (It happened to me just the hand before. Wonder if it's wrong to be checking back the overpair with no good backup as I did last hand, but betting the medium strength draw here.)
Turn ($2.85) J (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Bet thin value, or check back with good equity but not the nuts? Am I wrong to think that, readless, I can check back here to keep the pot smallish? It's an easy b/f, I think, but I also think that the villain will almost never x/r, since I see it so seldom at this level, and I'm not going to know what to make of a x/c. So if I really only want one more bet going in, I'd rather know what the river card is first.

OR, is this a spot where we feel good about betting for protection on a board that possibly picked up a draw, although a draw I somewhat block?
River ($2.85) K (2 Players)
BB bets $2.85
I beat trip K, but not KQ or KJ, of which there really should be a fair amount if he has a K at all. I certainly would have bet 2 pr on the flop (and maybe turn) if i were him for protection on such a wet board, but I find that other guys don't push small equity much oop in these games, so it's still definitely in his range. I beat all missed flush draws turned into bluffs. I chop the lower straight. I lose to AT (seems reasonable: he might have been going for x/r on turn and led river to make sure he got value.) And, as stated, lose to boats.

Is this an auto fold readless against someone who's played the hand so passively thus far, or can I bluff catch? Thoughts appreciated on turn check and possible river call. Thanks!

5 Comments

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Tom Coldwell 11 years, 8 months ago

If you know he's never bluffing turn (probably a fair assumption), I really can't understand why you wouldn't wanna bet/fold. By doing this you can either gain value from his 2pr/flush draw hands or force him to fold his equity. Both of these are much better than checking through and seeing a river for free.

Sean Fri 11 years, 8 months ago

Yes. that makes complete and utter sense to me. Except that I'll almost never run into a situation where I'll get to do the second half of the b/f. He'll never bluff raise the turn, true. But he'll very likely (if he's like the general pool of players I've run into at this level) seldom raise with the nuts, either. I know that's stupid and money-burning on his part, but it's hella common. 

But if you're saying more something like 'bet/stop putting money in' that might be a more realistic line. Because after he inevitably x/c's turn, we fold if he leads river and check back pretty much any river if he checks to us? Is that a reasonable analogue to a b/f line that might actually materialize if there were people to x/r'd for value in these games? 

Sean Fri 11 years, 8 months ago

OK, thanks. In this particular hand, that would have ended up being bad advice (which is of course why I asked.) But a quick check of my database tells me that checking the turn here is a bad idea, and that I get led into on the river a lot less than it feels like. But this is obviously a case of the occasional value-cut feeling worse than the steady march of winning lots of smaller pots. 

Joniko1 11 years, 8 months ago

I disagree with the statement that at PLO10 people are x/c the flop with trips on a drawy board about half the time.  I think they are donking or c/r 80%+.  The fact that the hand before someone x/c top set might influence the thinking here, but I really don't see this very often.  Much more often people are x/c with their weaker hands and draws and so going for thin value against the loose passive player pool is much the better line.

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