I thought it was easy get it in spot, but now I'm confused
Posted by BoTaRo
Posted by
BoTaRo
posted in
Low Stakes
I thought it was easy get it in spot, but now I'm confused
BN: $39.60
SB: $87.20
BB: $54.80 (Hero)
UTG: $52.49
HJ: $174.48
CO: $51.49
SB: $87.20
BB: $54.80 (Hero)
UTG: $52.49
HJ: $174.48
CO: $51.49
HJ looks competent reg at this stake w/ 22/14/5 stat so far and BTN is passive fish 51/9/0.
Preflop
($0.75)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
J
K
A
UTG folds, HJ raises to $1.75, CO folds, BN calls $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $7.25, HJ calls $5.50, BN calls $5.50
UTG folds, HJ raises to $1.75, CO folds, BN calls $1.75, SB folds, Hero raises to $7.25, HJ calls $5.50, BN calls $5.50
Flop
($22.50)
8
K
T
(3 Players)
Hero bets $21.01,
HJ raises to $42.02,
BN folds
against this range , we have 38% equity. (Please give me better syntex to setting the range here if u think)
x{(69.5 * 0.38) + (-47.55 * 0.62)} + {22 * (1-x)} =>0
number of x comes 0.88in order to make a profit by getting it in here, villain have to fold over 88% of the time.
Do u think our villain gonna fold over 88% of the time comparing his 3b calling range ??
Or did I make some mistakes so far ??
Loading 1 Comments...
First things first, the range you've assigned is too tight. Excluding stuff like QJ:dd, J9:dd, QJT8, KQJ9, QJ98 etc. is giving him far too many made hands.
However, assuming we are 38% when he stacks off (and there are no situations in which he calls flop which isn't hugely unreasonable at this SPR although people suck so they prolly call sometimes), your calculation isn't accurate. Your pot size when stacking off appears to be $69.50, but in reality there will be $117.60 in versus HJ (or $87.20 versus BTN). In those pots, we lose $2.86 and -$0.79 respectively (we actually make an immediate tiny profit against BTN even stacking off 38%).
I can kinda stop at this point, very comfortable that it's a profitable bet/call 'cas a $2.86 loss is TINY compared to the potential $22.50 gain, but we'll continue for the sake of completion. If you add the two together, divide 100 by the result, and then multiply that by your loss (2.86), you will get the required fold equity which happens to be 11.27%. (Obv we require 0 fold equity against BTN 'cas we already make money).
So yeah, if we're 38% to win the pot when the money goes in, this is an easily profitable bet/call.
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