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I have thirds nuts villian doesn't have the nuts, but could have 2nd nuts.

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

I have thirds nuts villian doesn't have the nuts, but could have 2nd nuts.

BN: $90
SB: $134.84
BB: $69.88
UTG: $159.07
HJ: $100.50
CO: $192.40
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt 4 K 8 K
UTG raises to $3.00, Hero calls $3.00, CO folds, BN calls $3.00, SB folds, BB calls $2.00
Flop ($12.50) 9 K A (4 Players)
BB checks, UTG bets $9.00, Hero calls $9.00, BN folds, BB folds
Turn ($30.50) 9 K A Q (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14.00, UTG calls $14.00
River ($58.50) 9 K A Q 5 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $18.00
I think everything up to the river is standard. I feel pretty confident he never had JT. He is 30/10 ish preflop and from scandanivia. I could see arguments for checking back otr, betting my size otr or bombing river and hoping he folds AA. Of those options I think the third one is probably the most ambitious because people still might not fold AA and if I am bluffing with a hand as strong as KK here I am bluffing with close to 100% of my flop calling range otr.

4 Comments

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Phil Galfond 12 years, 5 months ago
I agree with your analysis. I think the bet is good. He has enough calling combos of 2pr that it outweighs the times you get called by top set (or the rare occasions you get raised).
Sean Lefort 12 years, 5 months ago
Something that is so vital in PLO (and iirc Phil's mentioned in pretty much every PLO video of his I've watched) is thinking about the types of hands that could/need to be bluffing. In this case, there was a FD on the flop that bricked and that should be enough to make villain call with a lot of 2pr hands, of which he likely has a lot given his line.

Also, you didn't raise flop or bet particularly big on turn. So villain will have a toughish time putting you on a straight or a set, thus AK is likely not folding even to a larger bet. I think you can bet as big as 40-50% pot and have it make a lot of sense for your range including the seldom bluff with hearts + lone pair or whatever... and get a bunch of 2prs to call.
Jonathan Davis 12 years, 3 months ago
Not a fan our turn sizing given how that card should interact with his range as the pfr c-betting that flop. That card should add lots of equity to his range and I expect him to c/cing here quite often, we gain no real value by making our sizing smaller given I expect his turn c/c range here to be fairly inelastic. I would bet around 23-26 dollars and expect a much higher return than half pot.

I like river a lot and I agree he rarely has JT here if ever and we have the effective nuts besides the times he decided to c/c AA on the turn which I feel is a mistake against most player types at this level. I think your sizing coudl be slightly larger around 22 but a small bet overall on the river is best and checking back against this villain would be a crime given how much value our hand has against his range.

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