http://www.handconverter.com/hands/2531473

This is a hand from yesterday on stars.  Was pretty early in the match but my reads so far were:

Villain seems to split his river betsize on all boards between pot and half pot based on how thin his value bet is - 1/2 pot for thin value.  He hasn't shown down a bluff yet.  He's quite passive/stationy in general, espacially on early streets.

I bet flop and turn as I block boats so my hand seems like the nut bluffing hand.  Is this type of player leading the river often enough with a hand I beat?

If he checked the river I would have strongly considered value betting, so a fold seems like a really exploitative play.