HU OP on dryish board spr ~1.4. 50plo
Posted by WM2K
Posted by
WM2K
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Low Stakes
HU OP on dryish board spr ~1.4. 50plo
BTN raises to $1.50, WM2K raises to $4.50, BTN calls $3 Flop ($9, 2 players) 
WM2K bets $6, BTN calls $6 Turn ($21, 2 players)
WM2K ($48.15)?Villains loose/probably awful. Whats your default line here? bet smaller/fold, pot/call, check/decide, or bet smaller/call?
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So, I did some odds oracle stuff. Gave villain this range:
(90%!AA):8!84!82!88!56!53,4!44!42!35!56,2!22!A3!A5!35!56,QQ!88!44!22!84!82!42,JJ!88!44!22!84!82!42,TT!88!44!22!84!82!42,99!88!44!22!84!82!42
So on a 3o turn, we have 52% equity vs his flop calling range.
He makes bottom 2pair or better 22% of the time on the turn. So, we should get enough immediate turn folds that betting is going to be good. Note that most of the hands we're folding out we're ahead of, but a) making him fold out hands w/ 25% equity or so is good for us, and b) if we check, we let him realize that equity for free, or potentially bluff us off the winner.
With SPR of 1.4, I think I would just lean towards pot/calling turn. He just so infrequently calls flop with A5/56(usually jams), and vs his 83/34/23 combos, I think we can bet/call getting 8.5-1.
Thanks for the detailed response. I don t totally agree with the range you gave but intuitively it does seem like a spot to pot/call. Mostly I dont agree that he never has a str8 here and never slowplays 2 pair but obv some combos at least are jamming the flop. However I think we likely have room to be wrong about his range still with a pot/call.
OTF ya I do think that if villain is going to totally misplay vs a PSB or near pot that its a good bet size. However between having to be at least somewhat concerned about the rest of my range ( i m probably already c betting an exploitable range) and not wanting to telegraph my hand as a likely OP that is committing I prefer the 2/3rds pot bet. 1.4 or so OTT isnt the best but its also not that bad. We still have the option of taking a +ev line on most cards and save a small amount when the turn runs off really awful like 5,6,7, or 8.
I'm right there w/ you in regards to sizing. I always feel like I need to take the range sizing vs the exploitative sizing.
If villain is loose/passive fish than I would fire flop and fire turn. This is one the best boards that technically doesn't smash your hand so I would take advantage. Turn bet is dependent on villain profile in my opinion.
I'd like a small bet here, say ~$13, and fold to a raise. A straight is certainly possible here, but more likely is an 8 with sidecards or an overpair below KK. So a bet would be for value/protection, and when raised you have an easy fold.
River can get awkward when called, depends a bit on player tendencies. Shoving and check-folding are both decent river options imo. Though realistically, if you're ahead OTR you will generally get to see a showdown against most opponents so c/f is probably better.
Other hands are certainly possible. Some awful opponents peel with any pair or gutter in this spot, trying to hit something that cracks your 'aces'. I see all kinds of weird hands in this spot, but I also very often get turn folds here, so I think a small bet is best.
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