HU Nuts on turn turn into big challenge on river
Posted by lofigr
Posted by
lofigr
posted in
Low Stakes
HU Nuts on turn turn into big challenge on river
BB: $133.05
SB: $81.10 (Hero)
SB: $81.10 (Hero)
villain is very good player - best I have ever played... very tricky, and dangerous, capable for big bluffs and big hero calls...
Preflop
($0.75)
(2 Players)
Hero was dealt
2
K
8
8
Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.50
Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.50
Flop
($2.25)
7
2
7
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $1,
BB calls $1
Villain check calls, not building pot, very ordinary and quite hand...
Turn
($4.25)
7
2
7
8
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $3,
BB calls $3
Now we hit it.
As villain check called flop I am not check raising it here. // CORRECTION: I bet here probably nuts ( I was IP)
Turn card brings 2 draws: heart draw and straight draw. I would expect villain to c/r turn with 7 OR 72 or 7ABB non heart.
As villain check called flop I am not check raising it here. // CORRECTION: I bet here probably nuts ( I was IP)
Turn card brings 2 draws: heart draw and straight draw. I would expect villain to c/r turn with 7 OR 72 or 7ABB non heart.
River
($10.25)
7
2
7
8
7
(2 Players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $8.75,
BB raises to $36.25
Default fold?
ty
Loading 27 Comments...
i call always
plus id put reraise
fear that you wil lose to quads, which will happen occasionaly wil stop you gaining value 9 times out of 10
I think it's fold here (he has 7 >99%), BUT the way he played this hand.... it would be really GOOD play by him which fits to my impression how good he is....
Additionally, he did not 3-bet me pre (AA , KK - although he doesn't make that river re raise with KK I'm pretty sure), so I guess he has SEVEN... But all those c/c + HUGE c/r on river ......
hmmmmmmm.........
could be some trashy aces, i ve been reraised on rvr by really lousy cards so far, and very often on xxx board, ppl like to rep those quads much, last week guy rereraised me twice on such board, on second rereraise i jus had odds to call it off but was thinking he does have it, yet he didnt, so i dont put much thought into play in such spots, bad players will think JJ is good there, good players will try to rep quads so ..i jus call
tricky = big bluffs when he doesn't have it and I must fold + right HUGE bets when he has it in right moment when I am convinced he doesn't have it and I "must" call it due to probability and his "perfectly balanced bluffs vs value bets in similar spots" and "his deception play" from very beginning of hand to the SD
btw I haven't re raise it..... I just called.....
This is a spot where I have a little fun. On the river the pot is $10 before He bets, so I would bet $1. The most he can raise it is 3x plus the pot, makes for easy call against tricky player, it is like you are setting him up. If he has the 7 you saved a few bucks. You could also check the river back if you have no spine!! :)
whats the purpose of 1 doll bet? u miss the value
Like I said, it is a spot where I was having a little fun....it is just 25cent 50cent after all!!!
On a more serious note, there is not much value if he has the 7.
You can't turn PLO into calculus all the time like NL!!! Sometimes simple logic is enough.
I don't really play HU, but creating an IP bet-size w/ a monster that is entirely geared towards avoiding getting bluffed seems like a good strategy to miss value. That's the kind of bet I expect from someone who knows they're supposed to bet but is kind of scared to in case they're beat.
You guys obviously missed the "fun" part!!
The player in this hand has to make a plan before he bets the river. He knows his opponent is tricky so he has to decide if he wants to bet to see if his opponent will bluff the 7. If he is willing to call this play, then pot and snapcall. If not, check river back.
i really have trouble understanding your logic polar
i must be not fun ;-)
Tom,
Why it that clearly absurd. The hero told us about the player tendency (tricky, good). If we bet we have to assume this player may try something, if we like this idea, then set him up and call him. If we know he might make this move and wish not to be put in an awkward spot, then don't bet.
Why is that bad reasoning, I am playing player tendecies..?
Just because someone is tricky doesn't mean that we can guarantee he'll bluff all spots often enough that we can snap call here (indeed, if we expect that then we can play QQ like 88 here 'cas they become effectively the same thing). Is he really gonna get to the river w/ enough stuff that needs to bluff and/or turn overpairs into bluffs here? My expectation is that the answer to both questions is no (that is a dry flop on which he's very unlikely to check/call twice with air in the hopes of check/raising the river and I wouldn't expect many people randomly check/pot Ts here).
On top of this, your implicitly assuming that a pot-sized bet induces as many bluffs as a smaller one would which I doubt is true. However, the primary reason your strategy is flawed is the simple fact that we can value-bet here simply hoping to get called - as mentioned by DirtyD - without having to commit ourselves to putting another bet in.
Just because we bet doesn't mean we're committed to showing down under all circumstances. We bet because we can get called by many worse hands (all pps, perhaps some A-hi), but once he raises it's very likely we're beat. It's a tough spot for him to bluff, because if he doesn't have the 7 it's quite likely that we have it.
To get more math-y on it, he's risking 36.25 to win 19 with his check-raise. To be profitable it needs to work 36.25 / (36.25 + 19) = 66% of the time. Therefore we need to call at least 34% if we don't want to be exploitable (this math is explained in one of Lefort's videos). Given how the hand has played out, I think we probably have a 7 at least 34%. If that's so, we don't need to call with anything other than the nuts to protect ourselves and make money against bluffs.
This is a good illustration of how a high likelihood of running into the nuts can constrain your ability to bluff in some spots. I think villain should be check-raising smaller in this spot both for value and bluffs.
i think math is clear here, 7 is in someones hand 10 percent of time, and if villain is tricky and checkraises 100 percent nd you fold when u dont have it, he is gonna be good mist of the time, that most being more then 66 percent he needs because we will have it only 10 percent of time, so he may just have profitable line with players folding high full houses which of what ive noticed is mostly the case
in reality tho he wont be doing this 100 percent of time, he may have 7 but i run too often with ppl even rereraising spot with AA, he will have 7 here and there but negligible compared to all value we gain meanwhile with betting it to max from AA KK type of hands
Yup im aware, yet i find i win same spot 3 to 1 losing it, idk if its due to blind level im at
3 to 1 at very least, some times i run into ten bets alike these in raw and win all ten
he had se7en
ty all
he called flop and turn oop.he must have some show value.no river bluff here.
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