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HU Nuts on turn turn into big challenge on river

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

HU Nuts on turn turn into big challenge on river

BB: $133.05
SB: $81.10 (Hero)
villain is very good player - best I have ever played... very tricky, and dangerous, capable for big bluffs and big hero calls...
Preflop ($0.75) (2 Players)
Hero was dealt 2 K 8 8
Hero raises to $1, BB calls $0.50
Flop ($2.25) 7 2 7 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1, BB calls $1
Villain check calls, not building pot, very ordinary and quite hand...
Turn ($4.25) 7 2 7 8 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3
Now we hit it.
As villain check called flop I am not check raising it here. // CORRECTION: I bet here probably nuts ( I was IP)
Turn card brings 2 draws: heart draw and straight draw. I would expect villain to c/r turn with 7 OR 72 or 7ABB non heart.
River ($10.25) 7 2 7 8 7 (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8.75, BB raises to $36.25

Default fold?

ty

27 Comments

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lofigr 11 years, 10 months ago
ty Alexandra... offtopic: We both did not qualify in Eurosong final.... pih!

I think it's fold here (he has 7 >99%), BUT the way he played this hand.... it would be really GOOD play by him which fits to my impression how good he is....

Additionally, he did not 3-bet me pre (AA , KK - although he doesn't make that river re raise with KK I'm pretty sure), so I guess he has SEVEN... But all those c/c + HUGE c/r on river ......
hmmmmmmm.........
Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

could be some trashy aces, i ve been reraised on rvr by really lousy cards so far, and very often on xxx board, ppl like to rep those quads much, last week guy rereraised me twice on such board, on second rereraise i jus had odds to call it off but was thinking he does have it, yet he didnt, so i dont put much thought into play in such spots, bad players will think JJ is good there, good players will try to rep quads so ..i jus call

Nic Morgan 11 years, 10 months ago
I call here always. You just said he was tricky and capable of big bluffs so how could you assume he has a 7 >99% of the time? Makes no sense. Could easily be bluffing or going for thin value with TT-KK or something. If you're considering folding this, then he should be bluffing 100% of the time and if he is that good then he will be at least a decent % making this an easy call imo.
lofigr 11 years, 10 months ago
okay....
tricky = big bluffs when he doesn't have it and I must fold + right HUGE bets when he has it in right moment when I am convinced he doesn't have it and I "must" call it due to probability and his "perfectly balanced bluffs vs value bets in similar spots" and "his deception play" from very beginning of hand to the SD

btw I haven't re raise it..... I just called.....
Polar1965 11 years, 10 months ago

This is a spot where I have a little fun. On the river the pot is $10 before He bets, so I would bet $1. The most he can raise it is 3x plus the pot, makes for easy call against tricky player, it is like you are setting him up.  If he has the 7 you saved a few bucks.  You could also check the river back if you have no spine!!  :)


Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago

I don't really play HU, but creating an IP bet-size w/ a monster that is entirely geared towards avoiding getting bluffed seems like a good strategy to miss value. That's the kind of bet I expect from someone who knows they're supposed to bet but is kind of scared to in case they're beat.

Polar1965 11 years, 10 months ago

You guys obviously missed the "fun" part!!

The player in this hand has to make a plan before he bets the river. He knows his opponent is tricky so he has to decide if he wants to bet to see if his opponent will bluff the 7. If he is willing to call this play, then pot and snapcall. If not, check river back.

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago
I'm just gonna assume this is a level 'cas suggesting there are only two viable options w/ the second nuts - pot/snap and check back - is clearly absurd.


Polar1965 11 years, 10 months ago

Tom,

Why it that clearly absurd.  The hero told us about the player tendency (tricky, good). If we bet we have to assume this player may try something, if we like this idea, then set him up and call him.  If we know he might make this move and wish not to be put in an awkward spot, then don't bet.

Why is that bad reasoning, I am playing player tendecies..?

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago
Along with what DirtyD said below (ie we can bet for value and fold some hands when check/raised because we're looking to just get called), you're basing your play FAR too much on a very loosely defined tendency (note: 'tricky' doesn't mean 'always bluffs' and 'never bluff catches'). For some reason you've extrapolated and decided that because he's 'tricky' you can exploit him by inducing bluffs and that to do that you are best off pot/calling... This seems bizarre to me.

Just because someone is tricky doesn't mean that we can guarantee he'll bluff all spots often enough that we can snap call here (indeed, if we expect that then we can play QQ like 88 here 'cas they become effectively the same thing). Is he really gonna get to the river w/ enough stuff that needs to bluff and/or turn overpairs into bluffs here? My expectation is that the answer to both questions is no (that is a dry flop on which he's very unlikely to check/call twice with air in the hopes of check/raising the river and I wouldn't expect many people randomly check/pot Ts here).

On top of this, your implicitly assuming that a pot-sized bet induces as many bluffs as a smaller one would which I doubt is true. However, the primary reason your strategy is flawed is the simple fact that we can value-bet here simply hoping to get called - as mentioned by DirtyD - without having to commit ourselves to putting another bet in.
DirtyD 11 years, 10 months ago

Just because we bet doesn't mean we're committed to showing down under all circumstances. We bet because we can get called by many worse hands (all pps, perhaps some A-hi), but once he raises it's very likely we're beat. It's a tough spot for him to bluff, because if he doesn't have the 7 it's quite likely that we have it.

To get more math-y on it, he's risking 36.25 to win 19 with his check-raise. To be profitable it needs to work 36.25 / (36.25 + 19) = 66% of the time. Therefore we need to call at least 34% if we don't want to be exploitable (this math is explained in one of Lefort's videos). Given how the hand has played out, I think we probably have a 7 at least 34%. If that's so, we don't need to call with anything other than the nuts to protect ourselves and make money against bluffs.

This is a good illustration of how a high likelihood of running into the nuts can constrain your ability to bluff in some spots. I think villain should be check-raising smaller in this spot both for value and bluffs.

Aleksandra ZenFish 11 years, 10 months ago

i think math is clear here, 7 is in someones hand 10 percent of time, and if villain is tricky and checkraises 100 percent nd you fold when u dont have it, he is gonna be good mist of the time, that most being more then 66 percent he needs because we will have it only 10 percent of time, so he may just have profitable line with players folding high full houses which of what ive noticed is mostly the case

in reality tho he wont be doing this 100 percent of time, he may have 7 but i run too often with ppl even  rereraising spot with AA, he will have 7 here and there but negligible compared to all value we gain meanwhile with betting it to max from AA KK type of hands

Tom Coldwell 11 years, 10 months ago
The fact that a 7 will be in a random 4 cards about 10% of the time is basically irrelevant here. Villain's range isn't just random cards after he calls pre, flop, turn, and check/pots river. Equally, our bet/bet/bet line won't have us showing up w/ a 7 only 10% of the time.



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