HU, IP w\ gutter and weak FD

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

HU, IP w\ gutter and weak FD

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $127.34 (Hero)
SB: $47.22
BB: $255.41
UTG: $85.97
MP: $90.57
CO: $220.41
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BN with K T A J
UTG raises to $3.00, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $7.50
Flop ($22.50) 4 7 8
UTG checks, Hero checks
Turn ($22.50) 4 7 8 2
UTG checks, Hero bets $15.00, UTG calls $15.00
River ($52.50) 4 7 8 2 6
UTG checks, Hero bets $26.57, UTG folds

for whatever reason HM doesn't want to shove BU stats but from what I remember that was loose bad player. tho, it's zoom and I don't have much of reads\notes on him.
my reasoning through postflop:
otf we dont what to get raised that could happen quite often - so checkback seems like best option (additional advantage is that we underrep our hand.
ott villain is pretty much capped and shouldn't have any sets+. and we have decent change to take it down here. river plan at this point was to vbet all the diamonds\9s and bluff most of non-spade cards to get him of 1pair hands (and here I have some doubts)
otr. probably not the best cards, I'm not hoping to get him off any 2pair+ but decided to stick to the plan.
so, is it profitable to bet if villain wouldn't fold say 46xx here? we need our bet to work 25% of time, I guess.

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