HU $100/200 PLO Turn 3b Bluff - More Concerned w/ Theory
Posted by Phil Galfond
Posted by
Phil Galfond
posted in
High Stakes
HU $100/200 PLO Turn 3b Bluff - More Concerned w/ Theory
BB: MrSweets28: $39192.06
SB: patpatman: $40185.27
SB: patpatman: $40185.27
Preflop
($300.00)
(2 Players)
MrSweets28 was dealt
K
A
2
T
patpatman raises $300.00 to $500.00, MrSweets28 calls $300.00,
patpatman raises $300.00 to $500.00, MrSweets28 calls $300.00,
Flop
($900.00)
Q
7
9
(2 Players)
MrSweets28 checks,
patpatman bets $754.60,
MrSweets28 raises $1918.40 to $2673.00,
patpatman calls $1918.40,
Turn
($5491.40)
Q
7
9
Q
(2 Players)
MrSweets28 bets $4568.32,
patpatman raises $5631.68 to $10200.00,
MrSweets28 raises $7131.68 to $17331.68,
patpatman folds,
K, this is a read/flow based play that isn't that important. Essentially, I expected the overwhelming majority of his turn value range to re-raise flop given how the match had gone. More concerned with theory in this spot...
Final Pot
MrSweets28
wins $26824.00
Boats+: QQ, Q9, 99, 77(semi-rare), Q7(rare)
"Air": Wraps & flop "bluffs"
For PatPat to value raise the turn at this stack depth, I'd expect him to have QQ or Q9, perhaps AKQ7 but I wouldn't expect it without a very strong game dynamic. I don't see people raise a bare Q here, but should they?
If PatPat has a "value-raising" hand, like Q9, he barely needs protection. I either have a similar hand, an underfull, or MUCH more likely, a bluff of some kind with 0% equity.
The first issue is constructing PatPat's turn raising range. He either raises with some bluffs and some (likely) 100% equity hands, which means that given his blockers, his value hands will often get no action and will be up against 0% equity hands, and his bluffs are likely to run into a stronger range (or risk being rebluffed), OR he includes some Qxxx hands in his raising range (value? but needs protection), or he just doesn't raise the turn at all. I'll keep my instincts to myself until we've had some discussion.
I have a bunch of questions. Feel free to address as many or as few as you'd like, or to add your own and I'll try to share my thoughts.
So:
1) Should PatPat be raising the turn here with QQ or Q9?
2) If not, we can assume he has no turn raising range, correct?
3) If so, does he raise thinner for value than Q9?
Next up, if we assume his range is Q9+ or weak hands (draw, pair+weak draw, pair + no draw), how do I play my range? Keep in mind that it's already somewhat polarized.
If I ever want to bluff, given that I'm OOP, I need to do it here, on the turn. This means that my calling range can't really be balanced, right? Given my flop raising range, I can only call the turn with Qx+ (often boats), or perhaps the rare AAxx or KKxx that I didn't 3b preflop and decided to play this way. Unless we think I have enough equity to call turns with KJT7 or TT96. Do we?
So, even though my opponent is polarized, it appears that I should have SOME raising range.
Keep in mind, if I don't, he can raise Qx or KK for protection, as well as his wraps or OESDs with or w/o a 9 in them, and not risk being blown off his hand.
So, then:
4) Can I call with my whole range and be "balanced" enough that he doens't know I'm calling river 60%+?
5) Is balance important in my spot, or am I thinking about balance incorrectly?
6) Can I raise any hand other than Q9 or QQ for value?
Extra Credit:
7) I could call with most of my continuing range and construct a range that leads rivers. Could this be a viable strategy?
8) How would being 100bb deep affect your strategy here?
9) How would being 500bb deep affect your strategy here?
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