how to analyze a hand?
Posted by OMGphilgalfond
Posted by
OMGphilgalfond
posted in
Mid Stakes
how to analyze a hand?
BN: $400
SB: $430.43
BB: $914.23 (Hero)
SB: $430.43
BB: $914.23 (Hero)
Preflop
($6.00)
(3 Players)
Hero was dealt
6
8
7
4
BN raises to $8, SB calls $6, Hero raises to $32, BN calls $24, SB calls $24
BN raises to $8, SB calls $6, Hero raises to $32, BN calls $24, SB calls $24
Flop
($100.00)
K
7
3
(3 Players)
SB checks,
Hero bets $72,
BN calls $72,
SB folds
Turn
($244.00)
K
7
3
Q
(2 Players)
this is not about the hand itself more about the steps to take to come to a decent line in general.
In the example hand i have at least three options(pls assume there's only a potsize bet left):
1.bet
2.check/fold
3.check/call
option number 3 check/call i can evaluate quickly. My logic would be something like this: It is very unlike my 3rd pair is the best hand and my 3 nut outs not are enough to draw vs almost any betsize in particular reasonable ones. Its unlike it gets checked through because its looks like im giving up and turn improved opponents perceived range.
So if i check i lose almost always plus my equity i have right now.
ignoring option 2 right now and going to option number 1 bet:
i would go through this thought process
a) what is my opponents range on turn,
b) which part will he likely fold and
c) is it enough to make a profitable bluff?
a) and b) require some thought but is doable for me, the part i really struggle with is c). How do i compare the part villain continues and the part he folds.
I can go to ppt and put in KQ** click count and it gives me number. than i can discount some hands like AAKQ, and K7Q*,K3Q* KQ*h*h* and there are certainly some KQ** that villain doesnt even open from the button and it for other parts of his range as well. So that would take forever and than some.
Even if i would simply villains turn range to hands he goes with KQ** and hands he folds like 7x with a gutter and 3x with gutter that arent twopair i couldnt make a guess what % of his range he folds.
feeling lost :-(
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