how can he know enough odds(28%) to call allin ?

Posted by

Posted by posted in Mid Stakes

how can he know enough odds(28%) to call allin ?

BN: $65.77
SB: $100 (Hero)
BB: $104.16
UTG: $267.84
HJ: $63.82
CO: $241.52
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A 2 A 7
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $3, BN folds, Hero calls $2.50, BB raises to $12, CO calls $9, Hero raises to $48, BB folds, CO calls $36
Flop ($112.00) K 5 4 (2 Players)
Hero bets $52, and is all in, CO calls $52
Opponent is profitable Reg at this game,how can he know there was enough odds(28%) to call allin at this spot,how does odds working here? I can't believe 28% odds for opponent which 3 gunshot outs and back Flash Draws.
Turn ($216.00) K 5 4 T (2 Players)
River ($216.00) K 5 4 T 8 (2 Players)
Final Pot
Hero has A 2 A 7 CO has Q 6 T 8 CO wins $209.20

Opponent is profitable Reg at this game,how can he know there was enough odds(28%) to call allin at this spot,how does odds working here? I can't believe 28% odds for opponent which 3 gunshot outs and back Flash Draws.

9 Comments

Loading 9 Comments...

sted9000 10 years, 9 months ago

Just because he is a profitable reg =! he doesn't make big mistakes....right?

Looks to me like he made a too loose (bad) call. 

mplecki23 10 years, 9 months ago
I can't get the ppt format correct, but here it semi is4,169,700 trials (Exhaustive)board: K:heart:5:club:4:heart:AA [B]73.69%[/B]Qc6hTc8c [B]26.31%[/B]he's risking 52 to win 210 or 24.7%
ohgodwhy 10 years, 9 months ago

To me his play looks fine. He ends up in a dumb spot when he calls the 3bet and you shove but at this point he has too much money invested and can perfectly track you down to AA to get away from his hand I think.

Assuming you 3bet some of your better AA preflop, he can estimate his pot odds (assuming you shove) on the flop as 52/(52+112) ~ 32% and then plot his hand vs your AA range and see on how many boards he flops more equity than those 32%. From my estimation he does so almost 2/3 of the time which is way way higher than the pot odds he's currently getting preflop: 36/(3+48+12+36) ~ 36%

Tom Coldwell 10 years, 9 months ago
Your math here isn't accurate. It's not entirely clear what you've done/set out to show, but he doesn't have to put in 32% of the money OTF, but rather 24.7% (you didn't add his call into the total pot you divided by).


ohgodwhy 10 years, 9 months ago
True but that proves my point even more. I showed that villain has a +ev turn call vs AA!$3b6o ~2/3 of the time whereas he gets 3:1 on his flop call. Thus, both calls are +ev given the range assumptions.
It's true that he technically puts more money in with the worse hand but he has enough money invested to the point where folding and passing on his equity share is the bigger mistake.
Correct me if I'm wrong though. ;)
spassewr 10 years, 9 months ago

if the question "how he knows...." on any site that has a time bank, there is enough time to press time and then go to PPT and put in his hand vs AA. aaaand if he didnt do that...then he probably just pressed call bc "hey, ive got a gut shot"


why he has so much equity? its omaha, u block none of his draws and you only have 1 pair

Be the first to add a comment

Runitonce.com uses cookies to give you the best experience. Learn more about our Cookie Policy