Help with river math
Posted by DirtyD
Posted by
DirtyD
posted in
High Stakes
Help with river math
This is a hand a friend played at 5/10 live full ring. A tight reg opens to 30 in HJ, CO folds, my friend 3bets to 85 OTB with JhTsTh7s, blinds fold, and villain calls. They're 1800 deep eff. to start the hand.
Flop ($185) Qs4h2cVillain checks, he bets 140, call.Turn ($465) Qs4h2c6sCheck, bet 425, call.River ($1315) Qs4h2c6s9d1150 left. Hero?Every street is debatable, but I want to focus on the combinatorics of the river spot. We're pretty much in agreement on what villain's range looks like for getting to the river: Qx, KK, or AA w/spades or a straight draw; sets; two-pairs; straights. And we think he'll most likely call with two pair+ and fold one pair. So the question is how often does he have each type of hand?There are some obvious points that don't require any math, like straights are rare because he has few 53 combos pre-flop and he would often shove the nuts on the turn. But this spot seems to require more precision. It seems daunting to model his entire range street-by-street. How would you go about breaking down a spot like this?
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