Help w/HU 50plo river spot
Posted by MikeBucks
Posted by
MikeBucks
posted in
Low Stakes
Help w/HU 50plo river spot
SB: $58.56
BB: $50.75 (Hero)
BB: $50.75 (Hero)
I'm a low stakes hu nlhe reg, but am just learning plo. This is a zoom table w/no solid reads on my opponent.
Preflop
($0.75)
(2 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
Q
Q
K
SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3
SB raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, SB calls $3
Flop
($9.75)
A
2
6
(2 Players)
Hero bets $5.67,
SB calls $5.67
Turn
($21.09)
A
2
6
6
(2 Players)
Hero bets $10.21,
SB calls $10.21
River
($41.51)
A
2
6
6
6
(2 Players)
Hero checks
I'm torn between jamming and ck/calling this river.
I feel like I have the best hand a high % of time because:
-He almost always 4bet AA pre at 100 bb's.
-He can't have 6s flush draw obv because of the 6s turn.
-I think the only other 6x that can call the flop is Ax6x and it's just not that likely.
-I don't think he'll have many KK combo's that call the flop and turn cbets, plus I have a K blocker.
So my problem is I don't think he is going to bluff, or turn his hand into a bluff, on this river often and I don't think he's calling a jam often, so I'm not sure what is optimal. Help :) Thanks in advance!
I feel like I have the best hand a high % of time because:
-He almost always 4bet AA pre at 100 bb's.
-He can't have 6s flush draw obv because of the 6s turn.
-I think the only other 6x that can call the flop is Ax6x and it's just not that likely.
-I don't think he'll have many KK combo's that call the flop and turn cbets, plus I have a K blocker.
So my problem is I don't think he is going to bluff, or turn his hand into a bluff, on this river often and I don't think he's calling a jam often, so I'm not sure what is optimal. Help :) Thanks in advance!
Loading 5 Comments...
in plo he can def have 6+FD (6c Js Ts 8d for example). so its not like the 6s-turn makes it that much more unlikely that he has quads (than if the 6h wouldve turned)...it does cut the chance of him having 6x+ott by 25% however (6s turn compared to 6h turn) maybe i misunderstood you though....
but I agree with everything else you said and its ofc very unlikely that he has you beat.
so, id just bet, and at these stakes just bet small to get a crying call from a flush or a rando pocket pair ( the majority of his calling range will be A+pp or flush+pp that now has a boat and thinks it only loses to AA)....anything from 10-20$ should do the trick, whatever you think ppl think looks the bluffiest at these stakes
Sounds good, thanks for the reply.
I think it's a c/f, he doesn't call flushes otr I don't think, nor does he turn them into bluffs, he can easily, easily have 6458 that plays exactly the same and say he decided to call turn with A2 or maybe even naked ace thinking he's good or he has outs, it's unlikely he's going to bluff the river just cause you can river some boats like this. It's either he's a passive player trying to get to showdown, a reg and they rarely bluff since you can play AA exactly the same or even a 6 or the rare case, the playmaker fish that will do something stupid. But combine that with the fact that I really don't think you ever get called here by a flush makes it a c/f. It seems really tough to be balanced on this river also.
heres his range distribution on the river (gave him a loose peeling range otf, any pair+gs or better basically but its heads up so dont think its too inconceivable).
as you can see he will have a flush or worse about 57% of the time, and a worse boat 26% of the time and KK+ 17% of the time. if he calls any FH, then its def a vbet esp if theres a chance he calls with a flush (if he has the nf he may be suspicious as you are basically only repping AA he could also call with a lower flush thinking that you will always play the nut flush blocker like this but you only have AA+ in your value range).a slightly diff scenario:
tighter peeling range otf and still no raising range and giving him a tighter calling range otr, in this scenario a vbet is BE at best if he folds all flushes and only calls/raises with 77+.so you just have to make an estimation of his calling range otr, if there are very few low pps or he may fold hands as strong as 77-99 then its def not a v-bet.
I think whether or not to bet this depends a lot on how often you're going to show up with a bluff and fire the third barrel.
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