HU PLO 10/20 Stacks unlimited.

BTN 3x 9d8d6s4s, BB Call
Flop Qc7c5h(6)
BB check, BTN 4, BB Call
Turn 6h (14)
BB leads 14, BTN?

The goal here is to prove mathematically at what SPR calling turn becomes better than jamming to deny equity or lower the EV of BB's semi-bluffing region. Note that this especially becomes complicated because we likely have <50% equity vs his value region because he'll sometimes have a freeroll vs our hand.

Let's say BB is playing one of three strategies: Assume all 3 strategies are balanced for going pot/pot across two streets. (About 1.25 bluffs bet 1 value bet. When his bluffs have 20% equity, assume he's round 1.7 bluffs per 1 value bet).

A) Potting Nut Straight or Blockers. Assume his blockers have 0 equity vs our hand. Assume his ratios on the turn are perfectly balanced

B) Potting Nut Straight or Semibluffs that have 20% equity vs our hand. Assume his ratios on the turn and river are perfectly balanced.

C) Potting Nut Straight, Semibluffs with 20% equity, and Blockers with 0% equity.

If I need to assign what our equity is vs his NS region, let's say our hand has 45% for starters.

Vs strategy A, it seems pretty clear that jamming as BTN is always a dominated strategy. If we jam he folds his bluffs and call his NS combos. We get it in on the 45% side vs his value region and keep him from putting in any more money with air. Clearly the play is to call.

Vs strategy B, it's not so cut and dry. Despite him only calling with his NS combos, his bluffs will improve to beat us 20% of the time. It seems like that's fairly meaningful and I could see there being some stack threshold where jamming and either fold out or lower the EV of those semibluffs would outweigh the times we get it in on the 45% side. However, I'm not math-savy enough to solve that, hence this post.

Given I'm not sure how to solve strategy B, I don't know where to begin with strategy C.

Feel free to take a crack at B, C, or both. Looking forward to creating some good discussion here!