Hand where I spewed pretty hard
Posted by chuBuBBawuB
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chuBuBBawuB
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Low Stakes
Hand where I spewed pretty hard
SB: $14.74
BB: $10.16 (Hero)
UTG: $25.23
HJ: $11.73
CO: $26.17
UTG raises to $0.35, HJ calls $0.35, CO folds, BN calls $0.35, SB calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.25
Viewer discretion is advised, I butchered this hand absolutely horribly.
Had less than 10 hands on UTG. His stats looked loose and aggressive for what it's worth.
Preflop- Is this good enough to repot? I was fairly sure they would need to be a lot smoother QQds.
Flop- Given he potted into 5 players I didn't feel confident in my fold equity (although given what he showed up with maybe I was wrong and a jam was superprofitable at this point). But I thought folding overpair, openender, with two backdoor flushdraws would be crazy so I decided to peel. I didn't have a fully formed plan for any turns at this point which hopefully will change with experience and advice.
Turn- On the fly I decided to use my QQ blockers to bluff hoping to be live if shoved on. Not sure how bad this was or if it possibly becomes good on Tclubs.
River- Getting the price I had on a bluff I decided to put the rest in. Apparently I don't get a single better hand to fold though so it's probably not the best :/
OK then... I'd hope you guys can come up with some better lines than I did, so once you're done laughing at me giving a stack away to a fish for not much reason any advice would be most appreciated.
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Preflop is standard, and check-calling the flop can't be a big mistake if you play future streets well, but I'm not so sure it's particularly good either. When UTG bets OOP in a 5-way pot, his range is way stronger than in a heads-up spot. His aggression also makes calling less attractive than against a passive player, since you'll get to realize less of your equity (fewer cheap showdown wins with unimproved QQ).
The pot is already quite big on the flop, and Villain bets pot. A check-call commits a lot of chips in a spot where you can't commit. Our opponent should have a decent range, he also has aggression + position, your range is capped, and there are few turn cards you are very happy with. A somewhat meh situation to be in, even if our equity is decent.
As played, I'm guessing that you intuitively felt it unjust that Villain, aggressive as he is, should be the one to benefit from this turn card. But his range should be pretty strong, you haven't seen his reaction to the turn card yet, and he might not fold any marginally better hand like KK anyway.
So instead of sacrificing the rest of my stack, I would check the turn, and hope for a free card, which I probably won't get. But I already knew that on the flop, didn't I? ;-)
LOL. Good advice I'm sure. It was basically a situation where I was feeling super uncomfortable right from the flop bet. I knew it was by no means a good situation and it pretty much would end up with me needing to hit a card on the turn. Even if I turned a bunch more outs I would still have ended up putting my money in as a ~40/60 at best and I was never gonna get the chance to gain any fold equity unless I made a nonsensical donklead at some point. All in all the whole hand was set to be a red line disaster from the flop onwards.
Are there even any hands that I might checkcall flop with that would be best donkpotting that turn for value? I'm thinking it's actually kind of tough for me to really have KQ there?
You'll have some KQ combos like KKQJ and KQQJ rainbow that make sense to take to the turn this way. When the straight hits with a flushdraw present, you'd not want to offer a free card, so you bet them.
You don't have a lot of them, but then again, you don't have a lot of hands that are good enough to check-call in this spot, but not good enough to bet or check-raise. So it's not necessarily a line that has to appear overly bluffy, since your range is pretty narrow once you check-call.
Oh really. Those are other hands that I would feel very uncomfortable checkcalling flop with. Maybe I'm a huge PLO nit. I would have thought that with so few nut outs I'd end up checkfolding turn incredibly often vs a perceived strong range. Or are there some cards that don't improve us that we'd end up stacking off anyway.
If you call QQT6, you probably call some of those hands as well. Fewer straight outs, but better showdown value could convince you.
Great. Thanks for your advice. I feel like I'm starting to think in a more organised manner about PLO ranges already!
Zen - Are you really check folding this? Or are you suggesting a chk/jam on the flop?
Check-call seems ok, but I don't think we'll make much money. Intuitively, I don't think check-jam is a good option against a range strong enough to c-bet in a 5-way pot. I see there's some PPT analysis done in a post further down, and I could be wrong about that. ;-)
I think that I would be check jamming this flop. Having the two BDFDs helps our equity here a lot when we gii on this flop. Plus there are less JJ and 99 type hands in villains range and more high card hands. The over pairs he should be willing to fold a portion of the time, and a lot of those rundowns that he will like we are actually doing good against with out QQ and OESD covering a lot of outs. We also are going to be playing a lot of turns and rivers poorly.
Assuming that he is opening 25%6h and calling with a range of:
(AA, KK, JJ, 99, J9, KQT, QJT, T98, 9876, 8765)
Our equity is: 39.57%
And this range makes up about 44.5% of the preflop range.
So we could estimate here that the EV of the check raise will be:
EV= Fold frequency*pot + call frequency*(Gain*equity+loss*(1-equity))
EV = 55%*(1.75+1.68)+ 45%(10.65*39.57+ -9.81*61.43%)
EV= 1.88 + -0.81
EV = $1.07
I am pretty sure that I did the calculations right, Intuatively seems right because of how high our fold frequency is and being in a bout a 4-5 SPR situation. While we do have the informaition given to use by the cbet and I maybe be over estimating the fold frequency I did add in a lot of hands to the calling range which will likely be folding.
If he is cbetting the above range and calling the shove with (JJ, 99, J9, KQT, QJT, T98, 9876, 8765) then he will be folding 65% of the time (making the c/r more profitable since we fold out the pesky over pairs ahead of us).
I hope that I used PPT and odds oracle right, I am a little rusty but it all looked good to me.If I had bare QQ23$ds I might be more inclined to float OOP and try to use my blockers with a back up flush draw
Thanks for doing this much analysis. I definitely need to work a lot on these tools to improve where I draw my lines in terms of stacking off. One query - does the range you give him for c-betting exactly correspond to his preflop range? I'm sure that even someone as seemingly crazy as this would have some portion of his preflop opening range that he didn't cbet for pot into 4 players. You may have accounted for this already and I haven't realised where (not entirely sure what 25%6h refers to). I'm thinking there may be a few more value combos he calls with too but almost certainly nothing major. One thing is certain, I need to better familiarise myself with these programs.
You are assuming Villain starts out by c-betting his whole opening range? I think that's too optimistic, given that he's OOP and 5-way. When he pots it 5-way, his c-bet range should have significantly less air in it. Our fold equity then drops, and our equity vs his get-it-in range becomes much more important.
The point of the formula that I did was to show the EV of our hand against a cbet range of 100% and a wide GII range which will include AA and KK type hands. Towards the end of the post I mentioned that I would expect him to have a more narrow cbet range into five players. but I would expect it to still be wide enough that we can ship this hand and most of our range here since the hands that we are looking to fold out should (AA or KK hands).
I put up the formula and examples of how to solve in order to help OP think about the situation and if we can/should c/r here. I am a firm believer in the give a man a fish he eats for a day, teach a man to fish he can feed himself. Doing the forumla with a cbet range of 100% of 25%6h and a gii range as above is likely not a true estimate of our EV for a shove, but it will at least get OP thinking about how to solve it.
I actually added this nice little piece at the end to illustrate that once villain starts to bet with over pairs on this board how unbalanced his range will be. I know not everyone has odds oracle but I figured that this should give OP the information that he can not come up with on his own. What are the chances of UTG folding to a raise?
This shows that if Villain cbets 45% of the time he will have a hand strong enough to call our shove about 36% of the time. I didn't go out of my way to include hands and since he shows up with KKxx I use KK as the bottom of the cbet range.While I was not looking to do the math and there is apparent interest in our equity it's again another problem that we can solve for. So what is the breakeven equity needed in order to ship here (in a vacuum can I ship this hand and show a profit).
0 = Fold frequency*pot + call frequency*(Gain*x+loss*(1-x))
0 = 64%*(1.75+1.68)+ 36%(10.65*x+ -9.81*(1-x)%)
0 = 64%*3.43 + 36%(10.65x-9.81+9.81x)
0 = 2.19 + 3.83x -3.53 + 3.53x
0 = -1.34 +7.36x
x = 1.34/7.36
x = 18.2%
double check
0 = 64%*(1.75+1.68)+36%(10.65*18.2-9.81*.81.8)
0 = 64%*3.43 + 36%*(1.93 -8.02)
0 = 2.19 - 2.19
0 = 0
So as you can see since given the information at hand there are a lot of hands that we can ship and break even with. This hand will clearly show a profit since I expect to have some where around 35-45% equity against villains range. The narrow the calling range the better I am assuming my fold equity will be at SSPLO.
Also not hard to solve for the required equity assuming no fold equity and other questions that might be rolling around. You start to work with the formula and follow the examples think out loud about the problem and it starts to become very clear.
So without complete a formula based on cbet% and gii range I think that this is a pretty good spot to just pile.
1) no players left to act,
2) should have some resemblance of fold equity in this spot
3) Seems like the clear winner ahead of c/c and decide, c/f or donk lead given the pot to stack ratios and position/relative position in the hand.
Only time I would call is to donk all scary turn cards and pile rivers but think that would require reads and that the default should be to c/r gii on the flop.
Again I checked this all pretty quick cause it is a Sunday and got game to play but think I got the math and formula right. Hope this helps, and explains why I like c/r, I just don't expect to turn a better profit playing OOP with out the initiative and with an SPR of 1.5 over the turn and river.
Ah, so if he c-bets a reasonable range instead of 100%, the math still is in our favor. Nice work!
I think you need to reconsider the fold equity. Did I get it right that you assume he's folding 64% of the time to the shove? I don't think there's any way he's folding anywhere near that often. Someone crazy enough to cbet a naked overpair into 4 players is probably also not looking to really fold much to aggression.
Please correct me if I misunderstood something.
ok well make this post a little quick. If we are unsure of the fold equity we can solve for that too. Let give him all AA and KK hands in his bet call range, so how often does he need to raise fold the flop in order for us to turn a profit. Adding KKxx hands here really sucks for us cause it's an over pair and blocks our outs.
39.57% vs (AA, KK, JJ, 99, J9, KQT, QJT, T98, 9876, 8765):25%6h
EV= Fold frequency*pot + call frequency*(Gain*equity+loss*(1-equity))
0 = x*3.43 + (1-x)*(10.65*39.57+ -9.81*61.43%)
0 = x*3.43 + (1-x)(-1.81)
0=3.43x-1.81+1.81x
0 = 5.24x-1.81
5.24x = 1.81
x= 1.81/5.24
x = 34.5%
So if villain is calling that wide we need him to fold to our raise about 34.5% of the time to breakeven. Bare AA and KK make up about 64% of the hands in that cbetting range so if he folds half of them we are going to be showing a profit (our equity will also increase).
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