Gutshot + NFD OTF against 2 opponents
Posted by MIxT3R17
Posted by
MIxT3R17
posted in
Low Stakes
Gutshot + NFD OTF against 2 opponents
SB: 371 BB (VPIP: 69.63, PFR: 5.84, 3Bet Preflop: 2.40, Hands: 2,609)
Hero (BB): 259 BB
UTG: 102 BB (VPIP: 24.62, PFR: 6.92, 3Bet Preflop: 1.52, Hands: 133)
MP: 355.5 BB (VPIP: 47.34, PFR: 7.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.56, Hands: 851)
CO: 109 BB (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 16.28, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 43)
BTN: 244.5 BB (VPIP: 53.98, PFR: 33.63, 3Bet Preflop: 8.75, Hands: 227)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Th 8c Jd Ac
fold, MP calls 1 BB, CO raises to 4.5 BB, BTN calls 4.5 BB, SB calls 4 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB, MP calls 3.5 BB
Flop : (22.5 BB, 5 players) Tc 5c Kd
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks, CO bets 16.5 BB, BTN raises to 71.5 BB, fold, Hero ??
Given BTNs stats, I suppose he could be raising w TT,KK,AKQx,KQJ+FD? What do we do if we call and CO comes over the top?Do we shove OTF? Against BTNs raising range were slightly behind, but Im actually more concerned about CO.
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tbh, I don't think calling is an option at all, but might be wrong.
anyway, if we'll invest 70+bb on BTN call here, with our holding we commited, as we can't be <30% 3w here.
let's ignore MP for simplicity (his range here isn't strong anyway and I don't expect him to stay in hand too often given the action)
pre ranges:
CO $FI20!3bi4
BTN $FI40! $3b6i
OTF:
(again, let's assume CO doesn't fold here)
CO bet\GII range
TT+,TK:(cc,AQ+),55:(cc,JQ),K+:(QJ:(Qcc+)),Kcc+:(T,JQ)
it's 15% of his total pre calling range.
(HU we have 37% vs it)
BTN raise-GII range
55+,KT+:(AQ+),Kcc+:(Q9+,T),JQ9+:(K+,cc),cc+:5T+
which is 11% of his total range
*probably it's too tight, but let's see how we do in 'the worst case scenario'
So if he shove here we're in 3w all in pot
109bb effective stacks for main pot.
we have 36%
http://pokerjuice.com/hh/24187
PJ file
rest of the numbers for '3way all in no FE' you can see here:
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=359h310&s=9#.WM_LsbglGHs
if CO, does fold here sometimes it might become way better spot for us (depending on how often he folds).
also, my GII ranges might be bad, so let me know it they are too loose\too tight.
EDIT: meanwhile, if BTN was 100bb OTF, EV of shove = +$14.98
EDIT 2: I'm still not super confident that I'm using PJ 3way tool the right way
I forgot to mention that BTN was a maniac who bought in for 80bb and doubled up and was involved in almost every hand. His stats from the session were more towards 80/60.I had some dynamic with him and in this spot I decided to jam OTF because I didnt consider calling (maybe should have?Dont know really). However, I was expecting to be up against a set from CO because he was playing pretty tight. I dont know what I would have done in his shoes though.
They both called and CO had TK with K high FD and BTN had naked TK. I hit flush OTT and stacked them both wihich was nice.
I was putting ranges based on stats and I exactly thought the same, that CO has KK here super often (reason is that he's very tight and we block draws well) the hands other than TT\KK are the ones like he shoves (top2+additional equity)
BTW I think the ranges were pretty accurate.
OMG, this is a very nice hand to study! Ty to post here man.
First, the range that comes to you is that, IMO and you have 37% EQ here.

Now we have 3 options, first fold (ev 0)
Call or raise here. We will choose always the most profitable choice, right?
If we call we have 2 cenarios:
1) Co shoves (locker pot); Bn Calls; Hero obviously calls (I dont know, 80% of the time??)
2) Co Folds; (20% of the time)
CO shoves' range: :(TT,(TK:(cc,AQ+)),(55:(cc,JQ)),(K+:(QJ:Qcc,Jcc,Kcc,Acc)),(Kcc:(T,QJ)),AQJ)
BN has the same range.
Will we see a free river? I don't believe. So we need to do Peel and Stack-off flop>turn (hand vs range graph) and we need to invest 135,5 to 607bb (336 main pot and 271 side pot) So now we need to do what we will do OTT:
fold vs bet turn any 5 (3) (now we have 13,5% in the main pot and 29,3% de main pot, so your call will be -1000bb/100)
Kc (main pot 22,74 and the side pot 38,9% so your call will be 0,22 * 336 + 0,389 * 271 - 135,5 =
43,83 = 4383bb/100)
The conclusion is that we need to fold only on the 5 OTT, ok? So we will call (41/44) 93% of the time, ok?
now, in the main pot we now our equity, will be 37,4% against 24,2% against 38,35 and it is = 336 * 0,37 - 104,5 = 19,83 = 1983bb/100
In the side pot we will call 93,2% of the time and fold 6,8% and our average equity will be 54,05:
$Profit = 271*0,5405 = 10,98
EV = (10,98 * 0,93) + (-104,5 * 0,068)
EV = 3,11
Our call will be $3,11, in other words, 311bb/100.
So 80% of the time call will be profitable $22,94 or 2294bb/100.
and 20% of the time CO will fold; so is only Peel here but with different numbers
Profit = $519 (pot total) * 0,5405 - 240 = 40,52
EV = (40,52 * 0,93) + (-71,5 * 0,068) = $32,9 = 3290bb/100
Call = $22,94 * 0,8 + $32,9 * 0,2 = 24,93 = 2493bb/100
Now the question is: Raise is more profitable than call? Let's see
When you raises all-in, I think these will be their ranges:
BN range to GII: $fi40!$3b6i:((Kcc,KK,TT,55,KT,AQJ,QJ9,KQJ)):((55,TT,KK),(KQJT,AKQT,KQT9,AKJT),(Kc*c:(Q9,QT,QJ,T)),(AQJ,QJ9)) - 9180 combos
CO range to GII: $fi25:((Acc,KK,KT,AQJ)):(TT,KK,(TK:(cc,AQ+)),(55:(cc,JQ)),(K+:(QJ:Qcc,Jcc,Kcc,Acc)),(Kcc:(T,QJ)),AQJ) - 11101 combos
So your FE agaisnt BN is = (9180/15769 -1) * (-1) = 41,8%
Against CO = (11101/13321 -1) * (-1) = 16,7%
Now we have 4 situations here:
1) Hero raises; Co folds; BN folds
2) Hero raises; CO GII; BN folds
3) Hero raises; CO folds; BN GII
4) Hero raises; CO GII; BN GII
First: Happens 41,8/100 * 16,7/100 = 6,98% of the time and hero stabs $110,5
Second: Happens 83,3/100 * 41,8/100 = 34,82% and hero has 45,62% to win 303. So 303 * 0,4562 = 138,23 - 104 = $34,22;
Third: Happens 16,7/100 * 58,2/100 = 9,72% and hero has 49,82% to won $519. So 519 * 0,4982 - 240 = $18,56
Fourth: Happens 83,3/100 * 58,2/100 = 48,48% of the time and hero has 35,03% to won $336 and 49,82 to won 271. So 336 * 0,3503 + 271 * 0,4982 - 240 = $12,71
Now > EV = $110,5 * 0,0698 + 34,22 * 0,3482 + 18,56 * 0,0972 + 12,71 * 0,4848 = $ 27,59
IN OTHER WORDS, 2759bb/100
Conclusion:
Call is more profitable than fold. Raise is 266bb/100 more profitable than call
So raise is the best choice here.
it feels like too much FE for CO here (just intuitivly). I'll check what I had and will let you know
So many numbers! Nice!
The reality of the situation is that you have two options here - either fold or go all-in. I dont like calling, there are so many blanks OTT where you just have to fold or call it off with a weak hand. I have watched lot of Phils videos recently and one thing I have learned that he likes to play cautiously and doesnt like to stack if off too light being so deep.
Risk of running into a set is pretty high. I dont think its worth it to risk 250 bbs with just 35% of equity. I mean you have only invested 4,5 bbs. I absolutely lean towards folding here.
On the blank turn you have to call. Only turn that you have to fold is 5 (or blanck king that i forgot to put in my analysis =/ )
But you need to invest 135,5 to 607, so yes, easy call ott. And the call is profitable too, but is tough to play. However, raise is more profitable and very easy, right? ty!
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