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Getting (obvious) nut river ip in massive pot, how to value ?

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Getting (obvious) nut river ip in massive pot, how to value ?

PLO 200 (5 players)

UTG - Hero - 400bb
CO - 150bb
BU - 500bb
SB - 750bb
BB - 100bb

Hero Tc Qd 8d Tc

Hero raises 3.5bb, fold, fold, SB raises to 12bb, BB calls, Hero calls

Flop (36bb, 3 players) 9c Js 3d

SB bets 30bb, fold, Hero calls

Turn (96bb, 2 players) 9c Js 3d 4s

SB bets 75bb, Hero calls

River (246bb, 2 players) 9c Js 3d 4s 8h

SB check, Hero ?

CO good reg, BTN passive regfish, SB tight reg sometimes playing weird/tricky, BB aggro-fish

Preflop

Decent hand
Maybe opr quite loose UTG that deep and on a table with 2 loose players playing lots of pot, and big stacks.
Vs the 3bet, not sure about the call.
Not the hand we are very happy to play 3way with big stacks (no nutiness, big reversed), but good hand in vacuum and I have position

I mean, 100bb deep it would be standard, but in this spot I'm not sure

Flop

Wrap 17/11 + 2BDFD

Not bad.
Maybe could raise/broke that flop

But don't think SB has just bare ovp here (AAxx etc...).
Maybe some AAxx + GS/oesd (AATQ, AA8T, AAKQ), p w oc + gs/oesd (AKQJ, ATQJ etc...), DP + GS/oesd etc... (9TJQ), wraps (QKTx)
But getting myself TTxx, it block a lots of combos and decrease the Txxx / straightdrawing hands he could have
Some sets are possible too (99TT, TTJJ, JJQQ, AApp/KKpp that made some set)

Raise/broke could make him fold some too light hand (TP/OVP + GS for exemple), but he's going to call with sets (not a big problem since i have big equity against it) and some and that are dominating me or splitting with some of my outs (like p+oesd, or p+overwraps)

So just call ip seems me far better, with those 2BDFD in more

Turn

Blank.
not the color I wanted to see

He bets heavy again

Not the better board now (FD i don't have and he can totally have, big straight draw but far for nutty, and very few implied odds when I'll hit them

But I still have equity enough I would say, and position

River

Bingo

I think i've to bet now xD

But now this river is so scary (most scariest river with K) and completes all straight draws (nut oesd, wraps) which are composing mostly my range when I'm calling that flop+utrn, that's hard to value

How much would you bet here ? (~320bb left)

"Standard" sizing bet 60%-70% pot (~160bb) ?
Some small sizing to give him good odds (~70-80bb) ? An extra small vbet to make him fuck call with DP/sets (~30-50bb)
A "suspicious" massive bet like pot, try to make him level himself and make some herocall ?

1 Comment

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plolearnerguy 6 years, 10 months ago

pre would be maybe too loose utg six handed but here we are essentially MP because it is a five handed game, still probably a little borderline / marginal.

on the flop we have a five card wrap. this deep even over pair + gs has to fold if we raise pot. The two tens are nice here too making it slightly less likely villain shows up with the dread KQJT. no problem with call though and from a meta game perspective probably nice to have some stronger hands when you peel here.

the turn is a bad card, potentially killing a number of our outs. We also do not have a nut wrap, which is important, and it is somewhat likely that villain can make a straight on a ten or a queen. In terms of nut outs we are now down to three sevens, three kings, and two eights. We do also have a number of non nut outs which have some value, but not really that much. We don't have significant implied odds on our non nut outs and we also have some reversed implied odds as well as the potential danger of being bluffed off our hand. We have some implied odds on our nut outs, mostly when villain makes a worse straight (if he was pushing a hand like T987) or a set.

We are getting 2.25:1 and know eight cards. There are 52 in the deck so that leaves 44. In terms of our nut outs we are looking at a 7:37 or 1:5.3 ratio of nut outs to other cards. Essentially the question at this point is what is the value of our non nut outs in terms of winning the pot (not looking at them for implied odds), what is the value of our implied odds on our nut outs, and do these too figures make up the deficit between our direct pot odds and the probability of hitting our hand. The pot is going to be more than 3x bigger than the turn call, so we don't need to get paid off two often to overcome the deficit. All in all I think we do have a close turn call here, and there is also the possibility of picking off some river bluffs. Being in position makes a substantial difference here as well.

In terms of river bet sizing I think that a large size is best. We have the nuts, and if villain has a hand like a set or a straight, then he will not want to fold it. I don't think that betting small to induce a call from say an over pair is really an effective plan, and just lets your opponent off the hook when he does have one of the aforementioned calling hands. The fact that this card is such an obvious hit for you can play in your favour as well, because that makes it a good card to bluff if you had say KQJ2 ds with spades. So I say three quarters of the pot or so, and hope that villain hits the call button.

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