Getting (obvious) nut river ip in massive pot, how to value ?
Posted by benfiquista
Posted by benfiquista posted in Low Stakes
Getting (obvious) nut river ip in massive pot, how to value ?
PLO 200 (5 players)
UTG - Hero - 400bb
CO - 150bb
BU - 500bb
SB - 750bb
BB - 100bb
Hero Tc Qd 8d Tc
Hero raises 3.5bb, fold, fold, SB raises to 12bb, BB calls, Hero calls
Flop (36bb, 3 players) 9c Js 3d
SB bets 30bb, fold, Hero calls
Turn (96bb, 2 players) 9c Js 3d 4s
SB bets 75bb, Hero calls
River (246bb, 2 players) 9c Js 3d 4s 8h
SB check, Hero ?
CO good reg, BTN passive regfish, SB tight reg sometimes playing weird/tricky, BB aggro-fish
Preflop
Decent hand
Maybe opr quite loose UTG that deep and on a table with 2 loose players playing lots of pot, and big stacks.
Vs the 3bet, not sure about the call.
Not the hand we are very happy to play 3way with big stacks (no nutiness, big reversed), but good hand in vacuum and I have position
I mean, 100bb deep it would be standard, but in this spot I'm not sure
Flop
Wrap 17/11 + 2BDFD
Not bad.
Maybe could raise/broke that flop
But don't think SB has just bare ovp here (AAxx etc...).
Maybe some AAxx + GS/oesd (AATQ, AA8T, AAKQ), p w oc + gs/oesd (AKQJ, ATQJ etc...), DP + GS/oesd etc... (9TJQ), wraps (QKTx)
But getting myself TTxx, it block a lots of combos and decrease the Txxx / straightdrawing hands he could have
Some sets are possible too (99TT, TTJJ, JJQQ, AApp/KKpp that made some set)
Raise/broke could make him fold some too light hand (TP/OVP + GS for exemple), but he's going to call with sets (not a big problem since i have big equity against it) and some and that are dominating me or splitting with some of my outs (like p+oesd, or p+overwraps)
So just call ip seems me far better, with those 2BDFD in more
Turn
Blank.
not the color I wanted to see
He bets heavy again
Not the better board now (FD i don't have and he can totally have, big straight draw but far for nutty, and very few implied odds when I'll hit them
But I still have equity enough I would say, and position
River
Bingo
I think i've to bet now xD
But now this river is so scary (most scariest river with K) and completes all straight draws (nut oesd, wraps) which are composing mostly my range when I'm calling that flop+utrn, that's hard to value
How much would you bet here ? (~320bb left)
"Standard" sizing bet 60%-70% pot (~160bb) ?
Some small sizing to give him good odds (~70-80bb) ? An extra small vbet to make him fuck call with DP/sets (~30-50bb)
A "suspicious" massive bet like pot, try to make him level himself and make some herocall ?
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