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MidnightBacon 7 years, 7 months ago

If he X/Rs the river it will look a lot like an 8, but because your bet is tiny and could induce you can justify calling. :)

If you were trying specifically to induce a river bluff with the small bet I'm ok with the 100, but I think even as a small value bet you should bet the largest he may call with a medium pocket pair and I think with the $1130 pot you could get crying calls in the $225 range. And even if you're getting a call 97% of the time for $100, if you're getting paid 70% of the time for over $200 it's a more profitable bet. If I think he likely has 77-JJ I'm definitely betting more. If you're fairly sure that he's done with the hand after the turn your sizing could be pretty great. But If he knows how much is in the pot, the chance of incorrectly folding to a $200-250 bet could be just as bothersome as to a $100 bet... especially if he's on tilt enough to not care about paying off small.

Otherwise, I think your bet sizing on the flop and your choice to flat the villains turn bet are both solid. And the river bet is fine, some players check back there... I see it way too often, PLO players missing value with nutty-non-nut hands. Maximizing thin value (I don't think your hand isn't thin, but you need him to call fairly thin against your 3-bet hand that called the turn) is difficult and you made sure to get some! :)

What do you think about the river bet?

erdian 7 years, 7 months ago

He snapped me off on the river and showed T7xx... so its kinda hard to know what he had :). If it was somethig like AT7J I am VERY happy with my bet. Another fact could be about min-raising the turn. That was something I DID
NOT consider ingame but could be really nice against JJ/QQ and he could get stubborn.

I was on call-off mode on the river so if he had 8xxx and X/R me I kinda have to give it to him since he was so damn tilted. Then again he could have had TT in his range but I really doubt that would be playing that way.

As always ty for a nice feedback bacon!

MidnightBacon 7 years, 7 months ago

I think a min raise on turn looks exactly like you have an 8 and I think it will get a lot of folds. When it's not perceived as quads but maybe as a blocking and/or value raise from an over pair, what do you do if he jams?

I think you will more often lose value when you raise as it fleshes out your range as clearly being KK+, and opens you up being put in a really weird spot if/whenever he raises. Mostly I just think even tilty fish fold to the raise if they play with any regularity, you usually mention your nitty image. :)

The turn call should signify your at least having a big pair, but it leaves the villain with the option to try and rep quads, or when he gives up you can go for whatever value bet you believe to be most profitable against him.

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I think if he leads river TTxx and 8xxx are both possible if he believes your 3-bet is AA-QQ heavy but if he's bluffy and tilted you have to call! And I can see why you would pay-off/bluff-catch if he raised river.

If he lead $600 on the river we're you gonna call or raise the rest of you/his remaining stack?

Always happy to try and input :)

erdian 7 years, 7 months ago

I would just call on the river, he can ofc have TT/8xxx therefore I think its to risky in the long run although we might miss some value here aswell...

MidnightBacon 7 years, 7 months ago

I think it should be a call, you would have to have a laser read that he both has worse than KK and will call off with that weaker hand. When you're right about the first, the second is pretty unlikely.

I do wish he bluffed the river for a thousand though!

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