Gamble or fold and move on to the next hand?
Posted by SirTfied
Posted by SirTfied posted in Mid Stakes
Gamble or fold and move on to the next hand?
Hi guys,
This is a spot where I usually just call and try to outflop or outdraw a likely AA or good KK.
But after this hand I was wondering wheter I should just fold to the 4bet with a dangler in my hand and having only invested $17.50.
Had the 5 in my hand been an 8, J or Q I would happily see a flop, having a lot of SB potentiel rundowns dominated.
PFR and 4better opens 25% from MP.
SB is playing 49/24 (but a somewhat reg) with an overall 3bet stat of 13.5 and his squeeze is 12%. I've seen SB squeeze in similar spots with T987ss, 7755ss, AKT8ss.
Given SB rather wide squeeze range I think MP's range is AA, KKds and AKds with two broadway cards. I think he would call with position with his medium rundowns.
I tried my hand against these ranges:
MP: AA!RRR,KK$ds,AKJT+$ds
SB: AA!RRR,KK$ds,AKT9+$ds,AKT9+$ss,7654+$ss,7654+$ds,RROO:15%
This gives the following equity distribution:
MP: 39.6%
Hero: 30.5%
SB: 29.9%
Note that SB can't reopen the betting by going all in but I fully expected him to jam for his $335.30 creating a SPR on the flop between me and the 4better of about 0.5, meaning I will have to call just about any (non-paired) flop where I hit a gut shot or better.
Poker Stars $2.50/$5 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 2860319
Hero (BTN): $1059.05
SB: $335.30
BB: $515.40
UTG: $371.24
MP: $812.44
CO: $1386.53
Pre Flop: ($7.50) Hero is BTN with 9 5 T K
1 fold, MP raises to $17.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $17.50, SB raises to $75, 1 fold, MP raises to $247.50, Hero calls $230, SB raises to $335.30 all in, MP calls $87.80, Hero calls $87.80
Flop: ($1010.90) K 4 7 (3 players - 1 is all in)
MP bets $477.14 all in, Hero calls $477.14
So I guess my question is two-fold:
1) In this exact situation with a frequent 3better from SB, should I call with my hand?
2) In general, should I call 40% of effective stacks with a hand with a dangler two non-nut suit or just give up my invested 3.5BB?
Well, I guess I have a third question:
3) Am I right in that this would be very easy call had the 5 been an 8, J or Q?
Thx in advance.
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