folding top2 otr.

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folding top2 otr.

CO: $115.78
BN: $121.93
SB: $71.22 (Hero)
BB: $94.02
UTG: $41.32
HJ: $19
Preflop ($0.75) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt T 2 A K
UTG folds, HJ calls $0.50, CO folds, BN raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, BB folds, HJ calls $1
Flop ($5.00) 3 T 7 (3 Players)
Hero checks, HJ checks, BN bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, HJ folds
Turn ($12.00) 3 T 7 A (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $8, Hero calls $8
River ($28.00) 3 T 7 A 6 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BN bets $16, Hero folds

HJ 53\4

BU 42\14, wtsd 21. cbet 74\43\100 (2\2 otr). aggr by street: 28\24\21

notecaddy shows he bet 3 times otr. all 3times clear value (strength 90+) around 60% of pot size.


I used to 3bet often enough here, but latest discussions here make me think its way not the best spot to do it.

till river, i guess, its mostly default. OTR, his range kind of narrow, but I after all seems like not even close decision. 

9 Comments

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IbexTiller 11 years, 6 months ago

Why aren't we raising turn? Great barrel card for V and he can be barreling lots of wrap + FD etc and we block most likely sets. I would also expect value hand to be betting bigger on River given board texture


Sightblinder 11 years, 6 months ago

I'm calling river for one simple reason:
You're at the absolute top of your range.

- ~No TT-77 comes to river as played.

- I would expect regulars to raise almost all their AT hands (which calls from the SB), because of the drawy texture, and the fact that many AT hands will have alot of backup since you called from the SB. It's not like you are calling AT52 here (I'd suppose).  So if I'm villain, and I'm thinking about your ranges, I'd come to the conclussion that you're not super strong.

-Villain is making it extremely profitabel for him to bluff, given betsizing, and if you end up folding as strong a hand as T2P in this spot, when KQJx misses, turned flushdraws misses, you are setting yourself up for major super duper exploitation in just about any game above $10PLO.

It's not like I'm super happy about it, since I do feel many players will check back instead of going for light value with hands like A7, A6 in this spot, even though that might/might not be warrented. But still getting 16:28 folding just seem like range-spew on your part.

With regars to turn being a standard raise; There are regulars (whom I feel barrel to in-frequent) where I'd rather call and play river, rather than raise and GII 145bb deep with ~no redraws.


Haru 11 years, 6 months ago

IMO I would definitely raise ott. I mean every river card complete some straight and it seems from his cbetting stats that he is betting very wide range. As played I am calling vs this guy.

midori 11 years, 6 months ago

A problem with raising the turn is, we can't have much air in our range and are actually repping a very strong (yet narrow) range.  We probably don't have many 33/77 in our SB calling range, and TT probably raises on the flop.. that said we are repping pretty much AA and AT or some monster draws (again, few combos).  When our turn c/r range looks that strong, I don't think villain can make a huge mistake and get it in bad for 150bb or something, and if he calls, most rivers suck for us (which is true when we just c/c on turn, but we have a way underrepped hand and the pot is much smaller, he can still triple barrel with air)

I guess there's still some merits for turn c/r, mostly for protection, but I don't think this is a slam dunk c/r at all.  Especially when we have 0 redraws.


Sightblinder 11 years, 6 months ago

In general, arguments like "he can't call with worse" are always easy to counter with; "well just raise air then, and let him fold his way to hell". (I don't actually mean that, but if you find yourself never ever getting value with turn check/raises, your game would probably benefit from some bluffing).

If hero is worried about balance / not getting value, which I don't think he is, but which I think he should be, he should check/raise/fold hands like KK, QQ, and check/raise/call (as a semibluff) hands like good flushdraws(straightdraws) + picked up ace-pair on the turn. This could eg. be AK98, or A998ss. 

Now this might be total spew, all depending on the situation, games and villains he is playing. But what I do feel pretty strongly is that if hero is folding this hand, as played, he is making some pretty terrible range-lines, and should stop what he is doing, and think over what hands he is calling river with here (as played) if he is folding this hand. 

Then he should proceed to think about what hands he is calling turn with (as played). 

Then look at the odds villain is giving himself with his betsizing, and what percentage of hands hero needs to call (or raise) on the river, to not be exploitable. Then hero would realize that he is utterly fucked (as played).

I remember back in the day, when I got coaching from a far better player than me. I kept slowplaying unsafe nuthands (eg 67 no redraw on 589tt), and I always used the argument: "but they never call me when I raise". and he just kept hammering: "well just raise 66, 77 and random 6's or 7's then till they start calling you".

IbexTiller 11 years, 6 months ago

Good post.

Something that is bothering me though: Constructing a check raise fold range on this board with QQ, KK seems like utter spew unless they were KK:hh, QQ:hh. Saying that could we also use 88, 99, JJ with hearts as well?

JimmyGlass 11 years, 6 months ago

Fist of all I really highly appreciate your work here, I don't know whether it's possible to improve game in general faster than from posts like this. 


As you correctly mentioned I don't care much about balance (I try to raise trips and air vs regs on paired bords w\ same sizing, but not much of this stuff...)but I never raising worth than two pair (at least if V is not maniac and not folding to turn raise 50%+) in this spot. So my range is totally capped here.

From range-line perspective the way it played seems to me questionable  ott (probably bad as I don't have raising range here except sets, mb 2pair+FD), terrible\highly exploitable - otr. 

But, what I what to point out here - do we always have to follow unexploitable range lines here? (especially vs bad\more like loose-passive player) What I mean is (not for this spot but in general) - he don't barrel a lot at all, timing and sizing also show strength. + what I stressed more when making river decision noteCaddy clearly shows river 3\3 w\ this sizing is 90%+ hand strength (with here means sets+)


I'm no way trying to defend my line in particular hand, but arguing that vs bad player we could leave balance issues apart. 

more same stuff

http://weaktight.com/6071898

V lag-ish 32\24. w\~30% wtsd. we've got bet river. at same from my experience he's not calling here worth + his timing (like quick check otr) he's relatively strong. from range retrospective not betting otr is kinda range-disaster here (right?) but I just don't see much c/c hands for him with are worth than our (except AT mb)


I guess, I sound a bit stupid, but what I want is just to get it right - do we always have to construct our line following supposed range and trying to stay balanced or there could be spots where all this stuff can be left aside. 

thanks once again for input, guys.

Sightblinder 11 years, 6 months ago

No, you absolutely do not need to construct your game as to be un-exploitable. You ~can't be exploiting others, while at the same time playing un-exploitable. And exploitative play is where the money will come from in poker. This is like the ~definition of exploitative play (or close to it). You are making several points which I think should be adressed, so I'll just try and work my way through them, not necessarily in any particular order.

Your job at the poker table, is figuring out which exploitative line which will yield the most EV. 
Can also be written as:
How can you distribute different hands, into different ranges over the different streets, as to make as much money as possible.

Now, this might seem like stating the obvious, but the obvious needs to be stated every now and then. Also; as a low stakes player myself, I often find myself realizing I (probably) went for the lesser +EV line, because that line was "easier" to play. Now let me give you an (extreme) example, and you'll probably understand:

Villain plays 30/20 over a large sample.
Cbets flop 100%.
Cbets turn 100%.
Note:
-Folds alot to raises

So I call with some hand **** in posistion, and raise a flop where his range is weak, like maybe 654r after he is raising from UTG, where he is tight. This is surely a +EV bluffraise. But would it not be more +EV to call flop, and raise turn instead? Or even maybe river? It's psychologicaly harder to do, since you loose more when he has some hand that actually connected, like AA87, but if our reads are good, that will yield more money in the long run.

"But, what I what to point out here - do we always have to follow unexploitable range lines here? (especially vs bad\more like loose-passive player)"

No, but knowing how to divide your ranges in an somewhat unexploitable manner will always help you to better exploit.

And last; be careful to classify other regulars as bad, unless you have some pretty rocksolid reaons. We all make mistakes, or we would be playing alot higher. Its easy to see and say things like: "this regular is cbetting so little on my stats". But then consider he might be playing in games where alot of cbetting is not warrented, because of multiway pots, and/or many fishes at the tables.

ZenFish 11 years, 6 months ago

Good post. In a sentence: Play exploitatively on the margins.

Some hands should only be played one way (don't check back he nuts in position etc). Other hands can be played several ways. You can bluff a weak hand, or you can check and give up. You can make a thin valuebet in position with a decent-but-not-great hand, or you can take a free showdown, and so on.

Those in-between hands give us lots of room for adjusting exploitatively. Give up many weak hands versus an unbluffable, but bluff lots of them vs a nit. Valuebet thin vs a station, but take more free showdown vs a nit. 


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